Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The theme of stabilizing growth remains the main line for the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. The short - term treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored. Investors are advised to consider moderately buying on dips and conduct trading - type investment in a band - trading manner [44][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market Review - This week, the main contract of treasury bond futures showed a narrow - range horizontal fluctuation. The 30 - year treasury bond closed up 0.11% for the week, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bonds fell 0.06%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [4]. - As of November 14, compared with November 7, the overall change in the yield - to - maturity curve of treasury bond cash bonds was small. The 2 - year treasury bond yield remained flat at 1.43%, the 5 - year yield dropped 1 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year yield remained flat at 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield dropped 1 BP to 2.15% [7]. Macroeconomic Data - Investment Data: From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year (market expectation: - 0.7%, - 0.5% in January - September). General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 1.5% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.8%, 3.3% in January - September, 9.2% in 2024). Narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year (1.1% in January - September, 4.4% in 2024). Manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year (market expectation: 3.4%, 4.0% in January - September, 9.2% in 2024). Real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year (market expectation: - 14.5%, - 13.9% in January - September, - 10.6% in 2024) [10]. - Real Estate Data: From January to October, the sales area of new commercial housing was 71,982 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8% (- 5.5% in January - September, - 12.9% in 2024); the sales volume was 6,901.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% (- 7.9% in January - September, - 17.1% in 2024). In October, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of new homes nationwide widened significantly. In October, among 70 large and medium - sized cities, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.9% month - on - month (the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points), second - tier cities decreased by 0.6% (the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points), and third - tier cities decreased by 0.7% (the decline widened by 0.1 percentage points) [13][16]. - Consumption Data: In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,629.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% (market expectation: 2.7%, 3.0% in September). From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% (4.5% in January - September, 3.5% last year). From January to October, service retail sales increased by 5.3% year - on - year [19][21]. - Service Industry Data: In October, the national service industry production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year (a new low for the year, 5.6% in September). From January to October, it increased by 5.7% year - on - year (5.2% in 2024) [23]. - Industrial Data: In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, 6.5% in September). From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year (5.8% in 2024) [26]. - Employment Data: In October, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the same period last year [29]. Financial Data - Social Financing Data: In October, the social financing scale increased by 815 billion yuan (market expectation: 1.5 trillion yuan, 597 billion yuan less than the same period last year). The net financing of government bonds increased by 489.3 billion yuan (560.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year), and corporate bond net financing was 246.9 billion yuan (148.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year) [32]. - Loan Data: In October, RMB loans increased by 220 billion yuan (market expectation: 460 billion yuan, 280 billion yuan less than the same period last year). Corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 30 billion yuan (140 billion yuan less than the same period last year), and corporate short - term loans decreased by 190 billion yuan [34]. - Money Supply Data: At the end of October, the balance of broad money (M2) was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% (market expectation: 8.0%, 8.4% in September). The balance of narrow money (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% (market expectation: 6.6%, 7.2% in September) [36]. - Interest Rate Data: This week, short - term capital interest rates rose. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole week was 1.42%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.49% (1.424% last week). The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit remained stable at 1.636% (1.637% last week) [41].
稳增长仍是主线，国债可逢低做多
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-11-14 13:13