棕榈油：驱动不足，震荡为主，豆油：美豆企稳，豆棕继续做扩

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil lacks driving forces and will mainly move in a sideways pattern [5]. - With the stabilization of US soybeans, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil will continue to widen [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - Palm oil主力: closed at 8,752 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.09% increase, and 8,712 yuan/ton at night with a -0.46% decrease. Trading volume was 652,768 lots, an increase of 256,393 lots, and open interest was 409,209 lots, a decrease of 10,095 lots [3]. - Soybean oil主力: closed at 8,316 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.34% increase, and 8,328 yuan/ton at night with a 0.14% increase. Trading volume was 278,949 lots, an increase of 42,242 lots, and open interest was 464,244 lots, an increase of 8,824 lots [3]. - Rapeseed oil主力: closed at 9,975 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.37% increase, and 9,982 yuan/ton at night with a 0.07% increase. Trading volume was 260,760 lots, an increase of 64,851 lots, and open interest was 237,907 lots, an increase of 15,923 lots [3]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: closed at 4,126 ringgit/ton during the day session with a 0.02% increase, and 4,128 ringgit/ton at night with a 0.07% increase [3]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: closed at 50.53 cents/pound during the day session with a -0.79% decrease [3]. - Spot Data: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: spot price was 8,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [3]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: spot price was 8,610 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: spot price was 10,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton [3]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price: 1,045 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - Basis Data: - Palm oil (Guangdong): basis was -182 yuan/ton [3]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong): basis was 294 yuan/ton [3]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): basis was 355 yuan/ton [3]. - Spread Data: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: 1,223 yuan/ton, compared with 1,096 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: -436 yuan/ton, compared with -456 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3]. - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: -102 yuan/ton, compared with -90 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's palm oil production from January to September this year exceeded 43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%, and exports were about 25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% [4]. - Indonesia is considering a plan to increase the oil palm plantation area by 600,000 hectares starting next year, including providing 400,000 hectares of "Plasma mode" oil palm plantations for small farmers [6]. - Indonesia will launch the B50 biodiesel road test in early December, and the government is considering whether to implement the B50 mandatory standard only in specific areas. It plans to implement the B50 blending standard in the second half of next year, up from 40% this year [6]. - Due to the implementation of the B50 biodiesel blend fuel, Indonesia's palm oil exports in 2026 may decline by 11% - 12% [6]. - India's palm oil imports in October were 602,381 tons, down from 833,017 tons in September. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, palm oil imports were 7.58 million tons, lower than 9.01 million tons in the same period last year. The proportion of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year fell below 50% for the first time [7]. - CONAB expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach 177.6016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1199 million tons or 3.6%; the sown area to reach 49.0634 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.7169 million hectares or 3.6%; and the yield per hectare to be 3.62 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0 kg or 0.1% [8]. - IBGE expects Brazil's soybean planting area in 2025 to be 47.676233 million hectares, roughly the same as last month's forecast and a 3.6% increase from last year; the production to be 165.913102 million tons, the same as last month's forecast and a 14.5% increase from last year. The soybean production forecast for 2026 is 167.683455 million tons, a 1.1% increase from the 2025 forecast [8]. - Brazil exported 942,502 tons of soybeans, 433,164 tons of soybean meal, and 1,602,174 tons of corn last week (November 2 - 8). This week (November 9 - 15), it plans to export 1,361,184 tons of soybeans, 594,397 tons of soybean meal, and 1,600,468 tons of corn [8]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 Note: The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [9].