LLDPE：部分供应扰动，关注进口压力

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The LLDPE market has partial supply disturbances, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The raw - material end crude oil price fluctuates, the profit of the monomer link is compressed, the PE disk is under downward pressure, the downstream has strong rigid demand support, but the willingness of middle - and downstream players to hold goods has weakened after last week's decline, and the upstream mainly tries to hold prices, resulting in passive accumulation of factory inventories and a slight strengthening of the basis. In the short - term, the contradiction is not significant, but in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of L2601 yesterday was 6818, with a daily increase of 0.44%, the trading volume was 374,936, and the position decreased by 5,317. The 01 - contract basis was - 28, the same as the previous day; the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 75, an increase of 1 compared to the previous day. - Spot prices: The prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,790 yuan/ton, 6,900 yuan/ton, and 7,050 yuan/ton respectively. The North China price increased by 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, while the East and South China prices remained unchanged [1] Spot News - The futures disk was under pressure, the North China LL basis gradually repaired to around par, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased recently. The linear prices in North China, East China, and South China had partial fluctuations of 10 - 30 yuan/ton, 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and 50 - 70 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of the domestic LLDPE market was 6,760 - 7,450 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened low and fluctuated upward, but the market trading atmosphere was not significantly boosted. Traders quoted prices according to the market. In the downward market, downstream players had a bearish attitude and reduced their willingness to purchase raw materials, resulting in difficulty in increasing overall trading volume [1] Market Condition Analysis - The raw - material end crude oil price fluctuates, the profit of the monomer link is compressed, the PE disk is under downward pressure. The downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid demand support, but after last week's decline, the willingness of middle - and downstream players to hold goods has weakened. The upstream mainly tries to hold prices, resulting in passive accumulation of factory inventories and a slight strengthening of the basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, but the unplanned maintenance volume in November has increased compared to expectations, and the short - term contradiction is not significant. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2] Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]