生猪鸡蛋周报20251114：生猪供给持续充足，鸡蛋需求有所走弱-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Pigs: In a phase of fluctuating downward movement, the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The supply of pigs is increasing due to a persistently high inventory of breeding sows and improved production performance. The supply pressure in the second half of 2025 remains significant. Although the demand is expected to seasonally pick up, the boost may be limited due to the slow - down of economic development and changes in consumer preferences. The rebound space for hog prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the overall trend will be under pressure. Short - term hog prices may be weak, and the recommended operation is to short on rallies [3]. - Eggs: In a phase of fluctuating downward movement, the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and the supply pressure continues to exert downward pressure. The demand has seasonal changes within the year, but is limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences. The egg price is expected to remain at a low level considering cost and profit issues. The 01 contract is in the peak demand season, but the high supply is expected to lead to insufficient demand absorption, and the overall situation remains under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Section - Supply Analysis - Over - capacity and High - level Supply: The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level of 30 million. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026. The farming end's slaughter rhythm may affect the phased supply [10]. - Weight Impact on Supply: As the weather turns cold, the overall weight of pigs has increased, and the slaughter weight has continued to rise. With further cooling and a more obvious difference between fat and standard pig prices, the overall slaughter weight is expected to continue to rise [11]. - Demand Analysis: As the weather gets colder, the downstream demand enters the peak season, and the slaughter volume shows a slow - growth trend. In addition to actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage form short - term apparent demand. Recently, secondary fattening has been cautious, and the willingness for concentrated slaughter is also low [23]. - Cost and Profit Analysis - Farmers' Losses: As of November 13, 2025, the breeding cost of large - scale farms in the self - breeding and self - raising model is 12.41 yuan/kg, and that in the model of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg [36]. - Slow Capacity Reduction: Farmers are pessimistic about the future market. Sow replenishment is mainly for replacement, and the elimination of high - parity sows has increased [37]. - Policy - Reserve Purchase and Sale: The state reserve's purchase and sale of pork adjust market supply and demand and guide market sentiment to ensure the stable operation of the pig market. The National Development and Reform Commission will launch the third batch of central pork reserve purchases this year to promote a reasonable rebound in hog prices [44]. - Spread and Basis Analysis: Multiple spread and basis data such as the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11 basis of pigs in Henan and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 3 spreads are provided, showing different price differences and trends over time [52][61][67]. 3.2 Egg Section - Supply Analysis - Current Supply Situation: Egg supply is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened. The decline in replenishment in the third quarter corresponds to a decrease in newly - opened layers in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. The inventory of laying hens in the fourth quarter may decline but remain at a high level year - on - year, with sufficient egg supply [73]. - Cost Situation: Recently, the feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost has not fluctuated much, currently around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [75]. - Demand Analysis: In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the short - and medium - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and after the end of e - commerce promotions, the demand has not been significantly boosted, but high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. - Substitute Price and Spread Analysis - Substitute Price: The prices of major meats and 28 key vegetables are provided, which may affect egg demand [100]. - Spread and Basis: Multiple spread and basis data such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads of eggs and the 01, 05, 09, 10, 11, 12 basis of eggs in Hebei are provided, showing different price differences and trends over time [100].