粕类周报20251114：报告数据预期偏利多，内外盘走势震荡偏强-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For soybean meal, the upside space is limited, with pressure at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. Abroad, the US government shutdown persists, lacking data guidance, and the market focuses on Sino-US policy agreements and the return of US soybean orders. Domestically, near - term soybean and soybean meal supplies are relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure is expected to ease. The cost - end support for soybean meal is strong, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff policies and the growth of South American soybeans [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the upside space is limited, with pressure at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract. Globally, the 2025/26 rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, suppressing the price. Domestically, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and downstream aquaculture is in the off - season. The supply is expected to tighten, but demand is also weak. In the long - term, the global supply - demand situation will suppress the price, and in the short - term, it will stabilize with the rebound of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and Sino - Canadian trade relations [3]. - For different participants: Traders with inventory can hedge against price drops by short - selling a small proportion; those seeking to build inventory can hedge on the futures or options market to prevent sudden price increases. Feed mills can also take similar hedging measures [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The market expects a downward adjustment in US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report, which may tighten the fundamentals and support the price. The price has been oscillating at a high level between 1100 - 1160 cents/bu. Analysts' average estimate of the 2025/26 yield is 32.85 bu/acre, a decrease from the September estimate. The export and ending inventory are expected to be adjusted downward. The current US soybean has a cost advantage over Brazilian soybeans, but there is still pressure on further price increases without large - scale purchases from China [16][17]. - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.02/bu, a 6.40% week - on - week decrease and a 35.87% year - on - year decrease. As of November 6, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.0886 million tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume since the beginning of the crop year was 8.89 million tons, lower than the previous year [18]. 3.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazilian soybean sowing is more than half - completed, but the progress is behind last year due to local rainfall. The sowing in Argentina has started. China's procurement supports the Brazilian soybean premium, which remains oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to future weather conditions and China's procurement [26][27]. - As of November 8, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 38.4%, lower than last year's 66.1% and the five - year average of 57%. Anec expects Brazilian soybean exports in November to reach 4.26 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.47 million tons [27]. 3.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The international rapeseed price has stabilized and rebounded due to Canada's biofuel production incentive plan and the rebound of oilseed soybean prices. The 2025/26 global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons, with an increase in consumption demand of 2.06%. The trade volume may decline due to trade policies, and the inventory and stock - to - use ratio are increasing [52][53]. - As of November 2, Canadian rapeseed exports increased by 21.2% week - on - week to 188,400 tons. The cumulative exports from August 1 to November 2 were 1.4233 million tons, a 54.1% decrease from the previous year. The commercial inventory was 1.3187 million tons [53]. 3.4 Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - The soybean meal futures continued to oscillate. Although the Sino - US trade policy has changed, the cost of US soybeans is still higher, and the near - term supply is loose, suppressing the upward space. However, the overall import cost increase provides strong support for the price [63][64]. - In October 2025, China imported 3.932 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 3.387 million tons from September and a 17.25% increase from October 2024. The cumulative import from January to October was 95.682 million tons, a 6.39% increase year - on - year [64]. - As of November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.8057 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected to reach 2.1579 million tons and 59.36% in the 46th week (November 8 - 14) [86]. - The rapeseed crushing in coastal areas has basically stopped, with a crushing volume of 0 tons and an operating rate of 0% this week and next week [87]. - As of November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 7.6195 million tons, a 7.20% increase from last week and a 35.97% increase year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory continued to decline [101]. - As of November 13, the total soybean meal transaction was 606,340 tons, a week - on - week increase of 221,100 tons. The daily average transaction was 172,700 tons, a 43.35% increase. The total soybean meal pick - up was 900,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons [119]. 3.5 Basis and Spread - The coastal soybean meal spot price ranged from 3010 - 3050 yuan/ton this week, with mixed price changes compared to last week. The national weekly average price was 3080 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week. The average basis in coastal markets was between - 21 and - 61 yuan/ton, with mixed changes compared to the previous week. As of November 14, the basis of the January soybean meal contract in Rizhao was - 33 yuan/ton, and that of the January rapeseed meal contract in Dongguan was 128 yuan/ton [137].