10月经济数据点评：供需双弱，“前高后低”逐步确认

Production Sector - Industrial output growth in October was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in September, and below the market expectation of 5.52%[3] - The service sector production index grew by 4.6% year-on-year in October, a decline from 5.6% in September[3] - Export growth plummeted from 8.3% to -1.1%, significantly impacting industrial performance[3] Consumption Sector - Retail sales increased by 2.9% year-on-year in October, slightly above the market expectation but indicating weak consumption momentum[4] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in appliances and automobiles, showed significant decline due to weak income expectations and a sluggish real estate market[4] - Service consumption remained stable but lacked strong support for overall recovery[4] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment fell to -1.7% year-on-year for January to October, a notable drop from -0.5% in the previous period, indicating a clear downward trend[5] - Manufacturing investment decreased to 2.7% year-on-year, with October showing a monthly decline of -6.7%, marking four consecutive months of negative growth[5] - Real estate investment plummeted by 14.7% year-on-year, worsening from -13.9% in September, continuing to be the largest drag on overall investment[5] Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance in October indicates a significant decline in demand, confirming a "high in the front, low in the back" trend for the year[3] - The forecast for Q4 suggests continued economic pressure, with a likelihood of maintaining an annual growth target of around 5% if Q4 growth reaches 4.64% year-on-year[3] - Ongoing low inflation and weak demand necessitate sustained policy support, particularly in fiscal measures and income expansion[3]