日耗上行带动电厂去库，焦炭第四轮提涨落地

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [7]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, which has narrowed to a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% in October. The stability of coal prices is crucial for stabilizing the PPI, and the lowest coal prices in 2025 may represent a policy bottom. The report anticipates more supply-side policies to be introduced, given the ongoing "involution" competition [5][6]. - The coal industry is viewed as being in a golden era due to energy transformation demands and strict capacity controls under carbon neutrality goals. The supply of coal is expected to be rigid, with increasing extraction difficulties and regional supply disparities. Despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting demand, the report suggests that coal prices will maintain a fluctuating upward trend [5][6]. Summary by Sections Coal Consumption and Supply - As of November 14, 2025, the average daily production of 462 sample coal mines is 5.495 million tons, a slight increase of 0.2 million tons week-on-week but a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% [3][37]. - The daily consumption of coal by six major power plants surged to 804,000 tons, up 6.7% week-on-week and 4.8% year-on-year, while their inventory decreased to 13.873 million tons, down 2.4% week-on-week [39][40]. Price Trends - The Qinhuangdao 5500K power coal price increased to 834 RMB/ton, a week-on-week rise of 2.1% [3][24]. - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao power coal (Q5500) is 684 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.0% [24]. Focus on Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6]. - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy, are also highlighted [6]. Coking Coal Insights - The average daily production of 523 sample coking coal mines is 757,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2.59% [66]. - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port remains stable at 1860 RMB/ton, while the Shanxi production price increased to 1650 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 3.13% [67].