投资策略周报：再平衡、产能周期和微盘股-20251115

Group 1 - The report highlights a "rebalancing" phase starting from the last week of October, driven by Q3 earnings reports showing a "bottom reversal" logic in cyclical sectors alongside technology [1][10][11] - Three main reasons for this shift include synchronized performance of technology and cyclical sectors in Q3, significant gains in technology stocks, and concentrated institutional positions in technology [10][11] - The rebalancing phase is expected to last 1-2 months, with a more balanced style anticipated in 2026, where technology remains favorable in the medium to long term, and cyclical opportunities are expected to improve [11] Group 2 - In Q3 2025, A-shares experienced accelerated capacity reduction, with industries actively adjusting capacity plans under policy guidance [2][16] - Two categories of industries are recommended for focus: those with accelerated capacity reduction supporting price stability and profit margin improvement, such as coal and steel, and those with low current profit margins and active capacity shrinkage, like computers and textiles [2][26][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of analyzing capacity cycles to assess industry trends, categorizing industries based on capital expenditure and profit margin recovery potential [24][26] Group 3 - The micro-cap stock strategy has gained attention, showing resilience in high volatility environments and achieving excess returns through capital efficiency [3][39] - Micro-cap stocks tend to lead index rebounds in a liquidity-friendly environment, with a focus on self-repair and contrarian responses rather than traditional growth strategies [39][43] - The current micro-cap market rally is supported by diversified funding sources and stable structural conditions, indicating potential for further upward movement [39][43] Group 4 - Investment strategies suggest a rebalancing between technology and cyclical sectors, with mid-term opportunities in electric equipment emerging [4][44] - Specific sectors benefiting from PPI improvements and anti-involution policies include solar energy, chemicals, and machinery, while technology sectors like AI hardware and gaming are highlighted for growth potential [4][44] - Long-term holdings are recommended in stable dividend stocks, gold, and optimized high-dividend assets [4][44]