Minsheng Securities·2025-11-15 09:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the coal sector, including Shanxi Coal International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [2][3][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong demand-supply imbalance in the coal market, with prices expected to continue rising due to seasonal demand and regulatory constraints on supply [1][7][8]. - October saw a decrease in national raw coal production, with a daily average of 13.12 million tons, down 4.3% month-on-month [1][37]. - The report anticipates that coal prices may peak at around 1000 RMB/ton by the end of the year, driven by tight supply and increasing demand as winter approaches [1][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report notes that seasonal demand is gradually being realized, with port coal prices continuing to rise and stabilizing in the latter half of the week [1][7]. - Regulatory inspections have led to a significant contraction in coal supply, particularly in regions like Ulanqab and Linfen [2][11]. 2. Market Performance - As of November 14, the coal sector's weekly decline was 0.8%, outperforming the broader market indices [14][17]. - The report identifies that the coking coal sub-sector experienced the highest weekly increase of 6.2% [17]. 3. Company Dynamics - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot market exposure, such as Shanxi Coal International and Lu'an Environmental Energy, as well as stable growth companies like Jinko Coal and Huayang Co [12][21]. - Notable stock performance includes An Tai Group, which saw a significant increase of 57.29% in its stock price [21]. 4. Industry Developments - The report discusses the impact of international coal trade dynamics, including increased imports by India and Taiwan, which may influence domestic supply and pricing [25][35]. - It also highlights the ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures that are expected to limit coal production capacity in the near term [1][26]. 5. Coal Data Tracking - The average price of Shanxi thermal coal remained stable at 682 RMB/ton, while coking coal prices increased slightly to 1484 RMB/ton [45].