碳市场系列研究报告之五：我国绿证将迎来高质量发展阶段

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the green certificate market, suggesting it is entering a high-quality development phase [3][6]. Core Insights - Green certificates are the only proof of the environmental attributes of renewable energy electricity in China, with a market mechanism that allows for flexible trading [3][4]. - The development of the green certificate market is strategically significant, emphasizing the environmental value of green electricity and imposing mandatory consumption ratios on high-energy-consuming industries [3][4]. - The report forecasts a substantial increase in the trading scale of green certificates, estimating a market size of 132 billion yuan by 2026 [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Green Certificate Market Development - The green certificate market is expected to undergo high-quality development, with a significant increase in issuance and trading volume [3][6]. - The average price of green certificates is projected to rise in the future due to increasing demand from both domestic and international markets [4][6]. 2. Trading Mechanism and Scale - The report outlines a closed-loop operation mechanism for green certificates, including issuance, trading, application, and cancellation [3][4]. - As of September 2025, a total of 70.62 billion green certificates have been issued, with a notable increase in trading volume [4][41]. 3. Mandatory Consumption Requirements - Each province and high-emission industry has established mandatory consumption ratios for green electricity, which are set to increase annually [3][54]. - The report highlights that regions with abundant renewable energy resources have higher mandatory consumption ratios compared to coastal areas [57]. 4. International Recognition and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need to enhance the international recognition of China's green certificates, especially in light of the EU's carbon tariff set to take effect in 2026 [3][4]. - By 2027, the green certificate market is expected to have a well-established trading system, combining mandatory and voluntary consumption mechanisms [21][22].