统计局 2025 年1-10 月房地产数据点评：地产基本面趋势下行，高基数影响逐渐显现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is experiencing a downward trend, exacerbated by high base effects from the previous year, leading to a significant increase in year-on-year sales decline [4][5] - There is a clear trend of "trading price for volume," making the outlook for housing prices less optimistic [4][20] - Both real estate development investment and funds available to real estate companies are accelerating their decline [4][31] - New construction remains at a low level, while completions, as a lagging indicator, are on a confirmed downward trend [4][50] - The fourth quarter is expected to face unprecedented pressure in the housing market due to high base effects, although the strong wave-like characteristics of the sector may present trading opportunities [4][63] Summary by Relevant Sections Real Estate Investment and Sales Data - From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment reached 73,563 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%. The area of new construction was 49,061 million square meters, down 19.8%, and the area of completed buildings was 34,861 million square meters, down 16.9% [3][31] - New residential sales area was 71,982 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 6.8%, while sales revenue was 69,017 billion yuan, down 9.6% [3][5] Sales Performance - In October 2025, the sales revenue of new residential properties saw a year-on-year decline of 24.3%, with the sales area down 18.8% [5] - The sales figures for October 2025 were only 46% and 44% of the levels seen in the same month of 2019, indicating a historically low performance [5] Price Trends - The average selling price of new residential properties from January to October 2025 was 9,588 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% [20] - In October 2025, the average price was 9,722 yuan per square meter, down 6.9% year-on-year [20] Investment and Funding Trends - Real estate development investment for January to October 2025 was 73,563 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 14.7% [31] - Funds available to real estate companies totaled 78,853 billion yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year [31] - In October 2025, the investment and funding figures were at 51% and 45% of the levels seen in the same month of 2019, respectively, marking historical lows [31][50] Construction Activity - New construction area from January to October 2025 was 49,061 million square meters, down 19.8% year-on-year [50] - The area of completed buildings was 34,861 million square meters, down 16.9% year-on-year [50]