10月经济数据点评：需求再走弱，债市仍横盘

Group 1 - In October 2025, consumer spending continued to decline, with a notable increase in restaurant consumption growth, potentially driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, but sustainability remains uncertain and requires ongoing policy support [1][4][19] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in October 2025 decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.1%, primarily due to the continued drag from real estate-related industries and a post-holiday production decline [1][2][5] - October saw a slight increase in inflation, supported by rising service, food, and gold prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 0.2% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a reduced year-on-year decline of 2.1% [1][4][11] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment in October 2025 showed an expanded year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all weakening, indicating that stabilization in the real estate sector requires additional policy measures [1][5][16] - Economic data for October indicates a continued weakening of the fundamentals, with consumer spending and inflation as bright spots, but their sustainability is still in question, while investment growth and real estate prices are declining rapidly [1][19][25] - The bond market is currently in a sideways trend, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8%, as the market has priced in the central bank's resumption of government bond trading and the weakening fundamentals [1][19][25]