Core Insights - The report indicates that the current "Bull Market 1.0" phase is at a high level, with insufficient long-term cost-effectiveness in the technology sector, and increasing resistance to further upward breakthroughs. The cyclical market is still in a "running ahead" phase, with mid-term logic showing gaps, and conditions for the initiation of "Bull Market 2.0" are not yet complete. It is advised to focus on small wave rhythms based on short-term cost-effectiveness in a high-level oscillation market [1][4][6] - The A-share AI industry chain is currently in a state of "the major industrial trend has not ended + small fluctuations + long-term low cost-effectiveness area." Historical experience suggests that future trends will typically be divided into "high-level oscillation phase" and "adjustment phase" [1][4][6] - The report outlines three challenges that the A-share market may face in the spring of 2026, which could be a potential peak: 1. Long-term low cost-effectiveness in technology, which may trigger adjustments; 2. A critical verification period for demand-side conditions; 3. Conditions for the transition to "Bull Market 2.0" are not yet mature [1][6][7] Market Phases - The high-level oscillation phase makes it increasingly difficult to earn valuation money, and new industrial catalysts or sustained high growth in performance are less likely to lead to upward breakthroughs. This phase typically lasts at a quarterly level, and adjustments may not occur immediately [4][5][6] - The adjustment phase is usually triggered by intermediate disturbances in industrial trends, which do not signify the end of structural bulls but may adjust to reasonable levels between bull and bear markets [5][6][7] Investment Focus - In the current high-level oscillation zone, both cyclical and technology sectors should focus on Alpha opportunities. Short-term cyclical investments should prioritize sectors with favorable supply-demand dynamics, such as basic chemicals and industrial metals, as well as high-dividend-rewarding coal and leading oil companies in Hong Kong [1][6][7] - Short-term opportunities in technology growth mainly come from small wave rebounds, with a focus on sectors with new catalysts or significant industrial space, particularly energy storage and storage solutions. Additionally, sectors with upward economic outlooks and relatively high cost-effectiveness may see early gains before spring 2026, especially in innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense industries [1][6][8]
申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/11/10-25/11/15) ：牛市“1.0”阶段的高位区域
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-15 13:37