Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-15 15:24Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated at the bottom and dropped to the previous low. The market game intensified, but the rapid decline in terminal demand is expected to dominate the medium - term iron ore prices. The overall iron ore fundamental situation has changed significantly, and it is expected that iron ore prices will mainly operate at a high level with a downward trend [4]. - The demand side shows a situation where domestic demand continues to weaken while overseas steel demand maintains high growth. The valuation of iron ore in the black series remains high, but as domestic terminal demand declines rapidly, the high - valuation of iron ore prices is expected to fall [32]. - For trading strategies, take a bearish view on single - side trading, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies: Adopt a bearish view on single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - Global Iron Ore Shipment: The global iron ore shipment has been continuously declining from a high level, approaching the level of the same period last year. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%/23 million tons. The weekly shipment from Australia is 17.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%/4.6 million tons, and that from Brazil is 7.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%/11.4 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines in the first three quarters increased by 10 million tons year - on - year, and the overseas shipment in the fourth quarter is expected to remain at a relatively high level [7][15]. - Non - mainstream Ore Shipment: The global shipment of non - mainstream iron ore has increased slightly month - on - month. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments is 5.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%/16.4 million tons. The shipment of non - mainstream ore is expected to maintain a high level year - on - year in the fourth quarter, but the year - on - year increase is expected to slow down [16][17]. - Port Inventory: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore continued to increase rapidly, and the total domestic inventory of imported iron ore increased by nearly 3.3 million tons month - on - month. Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, with an accumulation of over 10 million tons, and is currently at a high level in the past five years [23][26]. Demand Side - Domestic Demand: In the third quarter of 2025 to date, domestic molten iron production increased by 3.5%/11.3 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 3.2%/12.3 million tons year - on - year. However, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.4%/9.3 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand for non - building materials decreased by 1.7%/3.2 million tons year - on - year. The domestic consumption of crude steel (excluding exports) decreased by 3.4%/12.3 million tons year - on - year. The demand for steel in the manufacturing industry has turned from positive growth in the first half of the year to negative growth [32]. - Overseas Demand: From January to September, the consumption of overseas iron ore decreased by 2%/15 million tons year - on - year, but the consumption of overseas iron elements increased by nearly 4%/27.6 million tons year - on - year. The consumption of overseas iron elements has been at a high level year - on - year since the second quarter, continuously contributing to the increase. The demand for crude steel in overseas India remains at a relatively high level [32].