供需双弱，成本支撑区间震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the silicon - iron and silicon - manganese markets are characterized by weak supply and demand, with rising cost support, and are expected to continue bottom - oscillating this week [5] - For the trading strategy, it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies for options [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Silicon Iron: Supply - side sample enterprise start - up rates and production have both declined. Attention should be paid to whether a production - cut trend forms when prices reach low levels. Demand - side steel demand and production from steel - mill samples have continued to decline. After the end of the phased production restrictions in Tangshan, hot - metal production rebounded this week, but steel profits are still poor, and there is a downward expectation for raw - material demand. Cost - side ferroalloy electricity prices in various production areas are generally stable with a slight upward trend due to the dry season and strong coal spot prices. Overall, the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, with rising costs, and it is expected to continue bottom - oscillating [5] - Silicon Manganese: Supply has also slightly declined, and attention should be paid to whether a production - cut trend forms. As mentioned above, steel demand and production have continued to decline, steel profits are still at a low level, and there is a downward expectation for raw - material demand. Under the pressure of weakening marginal demand, silicon - manganese inventories have been rising rapidly recently. Cost - side domestic port inventories are at a low level compared to the same period, spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend, overseas manganese - ore quotes are also rising steadily, and combined with a slight increase in production - area electricity fees, costs have increased. In the context of weak supply and demand and cost support, it is expected to mainly bottom - oscillate this week [5] 3.1.2 Strategy - Single - side: With weak supply - demand fundamentals and rising costs, it is expected to bottom - oscillate this week [6] - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies [6] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Demand: According to Mysteel data, the daily average pig - iron production of 247 sample steel mills is 236,880 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,660 tons. The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel grades (samples account for about 70% of the total demand for silicon iron in five major steel grades) is 19,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons; the weekly demand for silicon manganese in five major steel grades (70%) is 118,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons [11] - Supply: Mysteel statistics show that the start - up rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 34.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.42%; the national silicon - iron production (weekly supply) is 109,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. The start - up rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 39.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%; the national silicon - manganese production (99% of weekly supply) is 199,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,300 tons [12] - Inventory: In the week of November 14th, Mysteel statistics show that the national inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 81,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,600 tons; the national inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) is 352,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,000 tons [13] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Spot Price - Basis: The document provides graphs of the market prices of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia silicon - iron 72%FeSi, as well as the basis of the main contracts of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese and Inner Mongolia silicon - iron [18] - Production Situation of Dual - Silicon Enterprises: Graphs show the weekly production and start - up rates of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises [23] - Steel - Mill Production Situation: Graphs show the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly total steel production, profitability rate, social total steel inventory, and daily hot - metal production of 247 steel mills [27] - Silicon - Manganese Cost and Profit: The cost, profit, and monthly production proportion of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented, including Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou [29] - Cost - Manganese Ore Price: Graphs show the prices of South - African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, the CIF quotes of South - African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps for shipment, and the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port and the CIF quotes for forward - shipment [37] - Silicon - Iron Cost and Profit: The cost, profit, and monthly production proportion of silicon - iron in different regions are presented, including Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu [39] - Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price: Graphs show the prices of Fugu semi - coke small materials, Yulin steam - coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and the electricity prices in different regions [47][50] - Double - Silicon Steel - Purchase Prices of Hebei Representative Steel Mills: Graphs show the monthly purchase prices of silicon - iron FeSi75 - B and silicon - manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [53] - Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron Supply - Monthly Production: Graphs show the cumulative and monthly production of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron [60][63] - Manganese Ore and Silicon - Iron Import and Export: Graphs show the monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of silicon - iron in China [68] - Magnesium Metal Demand: Graphs show the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative production of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi [70] - Silicon - Iron Inventory of Alloy Plants vs. Steel Mills: Graphs show the available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills and the silicon - iron inventory in alloy plants [74][76] - Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports: Graphs show the available days of silicon - manganese inventory in steel mills, the total manganese - ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicon - manganese inventory in alloy plants [81]