钢材：铁水下降空间仍存，成材强于原料

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total output of five major steel products declined this week, with a greater reduction in rebar production than in plate production. The overall steel inventory continued to decrease, but hot-rolled coils showed a slight accumulation. The supply-demand structure constrained the performance of steel prices. It is expected that hot metal production will continue to decrease, squeezing raw materials and causing the center of steel prices to move downward. However, due to the launch of the 2025 Central Safety Production Assessment and Inspection, the supply of coking coal is unlikely to increase significantly, providing cost support for steel. Therefore, in the short term, steel prices will remain range-bound, and a breakthrough requires more factors. Hot-rolled coils are expected to perform better than rebar, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a range-bound trading approach for single positions, continue to hold long positions on the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar for arbitrage, and adopt a wait-and-see approach for options [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - Supply: This week, the weekly output of small-sample rebar was 200 million tons (-8.54), and that of small-sample hot-rolled coils was 313.66 million tons (-4.50). The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 236.88 million tons (+2.66), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 32.9% (+0.4). Although the profit of electric arc furnaces improved slightly with the decline in scrap steel prices, it remained in a loss, leading to a slight increase in production. The profit of long-process steel also remained in a loss but improved slightly, and hot metal production increased this week [4]. - Demand: The apparent demand for small-sample rebar was 216.37 million tons (-2.15), and that for small-sample hot-rolled coils was 313.59 million tons (-0.71). Steel demand continued to decline recently, with difficulties in project payment collection for downstream construction sites and a decrease in the number of projects on hand in the fourth quarter, indicating significant demand pressure. From January to October, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment declined month-on-month, with insufficient incremental investment in domestic projects. In October, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, new construction, and completion areas widened, with the decline in new construction and completion falling to around -30%, indicating weak data and insufficient willingness among residents to purchase houses, and the real estate market continued to decline. In October, the official manufacturing PMI was 49%, and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, showing a decline in the manufacturing PMI, with significant weakening in new orders and export data. In October, China's automobile production increased by 12.1% year-on-year, and exports increased by 41.6% year-on-year, maintaining strong positive growth in both domestic and foreign demand. In November, the production schedule of the three major white goods decreased by 21.2% year-on-year, showing a further decline. In the United States, the Markit manufacturing PMI in October was 52.5, up from the previous value of 52, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 218,000, unchanged from the previous value. The initial value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in October rose to 50, up from the previous value of 49.8, indicating an increase in the manufacturing PMI. The final values of the manufacturing PMIs in Germany and France, the two largest economies, were 49.6 and 48.8 respectively, remaining in the contraction zone and failing to break out of the predicament [4]. - Inventory: In terms of rebar inventory, the mill inventory decreased by 64,200 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 99,500 tons, resulting in a total inventory decrease of 163,700 tons. For hot-rolled coils, the mill inventory increased by 900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 200 tons, resulting in a total inventory increase of 700 tons. The mill inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 126,100 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 136,100 tons, resulting in a total inventory decrease of 262,200 tons [4]. - Outlook: It is expected that hot metal production will continue to decrease, squeezing raw materials and causing the center of steel prices to move downward. However, due to the launch of the 2025 Central Safety Production Assessment and Inspection, the supply of coking coal is unlikely to increase significantly, providing cost support for steel. Therefore, in the short term, steel prices will remain range-bound, and a breakthrough requires more factors. Hot-rolled coils are expected to perform better than rebar, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - Spot Prices: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,190 yuan (unchanged), and that in Beijing was 3,180 yuan (unchanged). The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,260 yuan (unchanged), and that of Hebei Steel's hot-rolled coils in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan (unchanged) [13]. - Profit: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric arc furnaces in East China was -240.38 yuan (+34), and the off - peak electricity profit was -75 yuan (+34) [28]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Summary - Domestic Macroeconomy: In the first ten months, China's cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. At the end of October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, both down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. In October, the newly added social financing was 81.49 billion yuan, a significant decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. The newly added RMB loans were 22 billion yuan. Residential loans decreased by 36.04 billion yuan, and corporate loans were 35 trillion yuan. Currently in the off - season of investment, credit demand is weakening, residential demand is cooling, the real estate market is further cooling, and the contribution of fiscal policy to social financing is weakening. However, it may improve at the end of this year and next year due to the impact of policy - based financial instruments. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed asset investment was -1.70%, a further rapid decline. Among them, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was -14.7%, that of manufacturing investment was +2.7%, and that of infrastructure investment was +1.51%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was -0.1%. The growth rates of the three types of investment continued to contract significantly month - on - month. The real estate market lacks fiscal support and remains a drag on domestic demand. The issuance of government bonds has slowed down compared with the same period last year, affecting infrastructure investment to some extent. The repayment situation of downstream projects is poor, corporate loans are low, and the investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry continues to contract due to insufficient industrial prosperity [30][35]. - Foreign Macroeconomy: In the United States, the Markit manufacturing PMI in October was 52.5, up from the previous value of 52, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 218,000, unchanged from the previous value. The initial value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in October rose to 50, up from the previous value of 49.8, indicating an increase in the manufacturing PMI. The final values of the manufacturing PMIs in Germany and France, the two largest economies, were 49.6 and 48.8 respectively, remaining in the contraction zone and failing to break out of the predicament [4]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - Supply: The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 236.88 million tons (+2.66), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 32.9% (+0.4). The weekly output of small - sample rebar was 208.54 million tons, a decrease of 8.54 million tons month - on - month. The weekly output of small - sample hot - rolled coils was 313.66 million tons, a decrease of 4.50 million tons month - on - month [53][58]. - Demand: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 216.37 million tons (a 7.6% decrease compared with the same period in the lunar calendar), a decrease of 2.15 million tons month - on - month. The apparent demand for small - sample hot - rolled coils was 313.59 million tons (a 1.67% decrease compared with the same period in the lunar calendar), a decrease of 0.71 million tons month - on - month. The demand for building materials and the production schedule of white goods declined, while the production and export of automobiles maintained strong growth [61]. - Inventory: The total inventory of rebar decreased, while the total inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The overall inventory of the five major steel products decreased [4].