Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-15 15:27Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the strategic configuration period for quality companies [3][7]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales growth of 2.9% year-on-year in October and a 3.8% increase in restaurant revenue, indicating a rebound from previous declines [3][7]. - Major liquor companies have experienced significant revenue declines, but the market is actively seeking a balance between volume and price, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the market [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of patience regarding fundamental performance and notes that individual stock performance will vary during this adjustment phase [3][7]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector rose by 2.82% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.99 percentage points [6]. - Key stocks such as Huanyujia and Sanyuan have shown significant gains, while Dongpeng Beverage and Qianwei Yangchun faced declines [6]. Liquor Sector Analysis - The report indicates that the liquor sector is entering a strategic configuration phase, with expectations of a fundamental turning point in Q3 2026 [8]. - The average price for Moutai is reported at 1655 RMB for loose bottles, with a week-on-week increase of 15 RMB, while the price for Wuliangye remains stable at approximately 830 RMB [8][26]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on sales volume in early 2026, but a stabilization and recovery in prices as inventory clears and demand rebounds [8]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The performance of consumer goods companies has been mixed, with leading firms like Yili and Qingdao Beer maintaining stable operations, while some companies in the snack and beverage sectors have seen a slowdown in revenue growth [9]. - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend yielding companies and those with sustainable growth potential, particularly in the snack and beverage segments [9]. Valuation Metrics - As of November 14, 2025, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.85x, with a premium rate of 27%, while the liquor sector has a dynamic PE of 19.51x, with a premium rate of 18% [27].