流动性跟踪：资金再“闯关”

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, near mid - month, the liquidity tightened slightly. Disturbances mainly came from new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange and the freezing of "Double Eleven" reserve funds. However, with the central bank's continuous support, the pressure on the money market eased during the week. The CD rate continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, deviating from the tightening money market, likely supported by "neutral supply and strong demand". Looking ahead to next week, there will be more disturbances in the money market, and the CD rate may maintain a volatile pattern [2][10][15][22] Summary by Directory 1. Why are funds tight while CDs are stable? - This week's unexpected tightening of funds: Near mid - month, the money market tightened. Reasons included the "aftershocks" of large - scale net withdrawals in the open market at the beginning of the month, the temporary freezing of large - scale reserve funds for "Double Eleven", and the record - high frozen funds from new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The central bank's positive net reverse repurchase injection relieved the pressure [10][11] - This week's narrow - range fluctuation of CD rates: The 1 - year CD quotes of national and joint - stock banks basically remained in the range of 1.61% - 1.65%. The stability was supported by relatively large - scale reverse repurchase and MLF injections since June, which controlled the CD renewal pressure, and the alternating release of allocation demands from wealth management products and money market funds in the second half of the year. The supply pressure from credit issuance and the maturity of high - interest time deposits was currently limited [15][17] - Future trends of CDs and funds: Next week, there will be more disturbances in the money market, but the central bank may increase liquidity injections. The CD rate may maintain a volatile pattern, with the increase in CD maturity and liability - side capital demand potentially amplifying supply, while large - scale 6M reverse repurchase injections may provide some support. The narrowing spread between short - term rates and CDs may restrict further buying by trading desks [22] 2. Open Market: Over Trillion Yuan to Mature Next Week - From 11/10 - 11/14, the open - market net investment was - 738 billion yuan. From 11/17 - 11/21, the open - market maturity will be 1.242 trillion yuan, including 1.122 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits. In November, there will be 90 billion yuan of MLF maturity, 70 billion yuan of 3M reverse repurchase maturity, and 30 billion yuan of 6M reverse repurchase maturity. On 11/17, 80 billion yuan of 6M reverse repurchases will be injected [26][29][31] 3. Government Bonds: Issuance Scale to Decline Next Week - From 11/10 - 11/14, government bonds worth 546.7 billion yuan were issued. From 11/17 - 11/21, the planned issuance is 371.7 billion yuan. The net issuance and net payment of national and local bonds will also change accordingly. This week, the net issuance of national bonds was 244.3 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 6.094 trillion yuan and a progress of 99%. The issuance of new local bonds was 151.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 4.9199 trillion yuan and a progress of 95% [35][36] 4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in November 2025 will be about 1.49%, a month - on - month increase of about 0.05pct and a year - on - year decrease of 0.17pct. From 11/10 - 11/14, the open - market net investment was - 738 billion yuan, government bond net payment was 459.8 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure gap was - 207.8 billion yuan, and the reserve requirement was 45 billion yuan [38][39] 5. Money Market: Net Lending by Large Banks Declined - Funding rates fluctuated: As of 11/14, compared with 11/7, DR001, DR007, R001, and R007 all increased. SHIBOR, CNH HIBOR, interest rate swaps, and bill rates also showed corresponding changes. The daily average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, while that of Shanghai Stock Exchange new - style pledged treasury bond repurchase increased [41][47][52] - Net lending by large banks decreased: From 11/10 - 11/14, the average net lending of the banking system decreased by 818 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The net lending of state - owned large banks decreased by 600.4 billion yuan, with overnight lending accounting for 98%, a 0.29% change from the previous week [56] 6. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - Primary market: Net financing turned negative: From 11/10 - 11/14, the total issuance of inter - bank CDs was 709.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 17.2 billion yuan. The issuance scale increased, but the net financing decreased compared with the previous week. By entity, joint - stock banks had the highest issuance scale, and state - owned banks had the highest net financing. By term, 6M CDs had the highest issuance scale and net financing. Next week, the CD maturity will be 899.7 billion yuan, an increase of 173.4 billion yuan from this week [64][75] - Secondary market: Yields increased: The yields of CDs of all terms and grades increased. For example, the yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y AAA - rated CDs increased by 2, 1.5, 1, 0.5, and 0.5BP respectively [90]