Group 1: Market Overview - The funding market experienced significant upward pressure on interest rates, with R001 and R007 averaging 1.47% and 1.50% respectively, increasing by 10 and 4 basis points week-on-week[1] - The average daily lending volume in the banking system dropped to below 4 trillion yuan, at 3.84 trillion yuan, down from 4.69 trillion yuan the previous week[1] - The pressure on local government bond payments increased, with weekly payment amounts exceeding 500 billion yuan[1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The tax period from November 17-19 is expected to have limited impact, with an average tax collection of approximately 1.1 trillion yuan over the past three years[2] - Government bond net payments for the upcoming week are projected at 3629 billion yuan, still above the average level for the year[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to conduct a net injection of 500 billion yuan during the tax period, mitigating overall payment pressure[2] Group 3: Open Market Operations - The PBOC will face a total of 12,420 billion yuan in maturities from November 17-21, with reverse repos accounting for 11,220 billion yuan[3] - The PBOC has announced an excess rollover of 8000 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos on the first day of the tax period[3] Group 4: Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.63%, an increase of 0.4 basis points from the previous week[6] - The upcoming week will see 9209 billion yuan in certificates of deposit maturing, up from 7265 billion yuan the previous week[6] Group 5: Government Bonds - Net payments for government bonds from November 17-21 are expected to be 3629 billion yuan, down from 5075 billion yuan the previous week[5] - The issuance scale for government bonds is projected to be lower, with planned issuance of 3717 billion yuan compared to 5944 billion yuan the previous week[5]
流动性跟踪:资金压力仍存
HUAXI Securities·2025-11-15 15:33