高频跟踪周报20251116：农产品价格逆势上涨？-20251116

Report Information - Report Title: "High - frequency Tracking Weekly Report 20251116" - Report Date: November 16, 2025 - Authors: Tan Yiming, Xie Yao Core Views - This week, the real - estate new home sales increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, while second - hand home sales increased month - on - month. Automobile consumption cooled down, and movie box office declined. Production start - up rates showed differentiation, and investment in some sectors was sluggish. Commodity futures prices fluctuated. Agricultural product prices rose against the seasonal trend, and it's expected that food prices may support the rebound of CPI. The 2 - trillion - yuan replacement bonds this year are basically issued [3][4][10]. Summary by Section Demand - Real - estate: The transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. First - tier cities saw a year - on - year decline. Second - hand home transaction areas in key cities increased month - on - month. It's expected that the real - estate policy toolbox may expand further, aiming for a soft landing of the market [5][15]. - Consumption: Automobile consumption cooled down, movie box office decreased year - on - year, the national migration scale index rose, and subway ridership declined [5]. Production - Mid - and upstream: The start - up rate of Tangshan blast furnaces remained flat week - on - week. The start - up rate of PTA decreased, that of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased, the start - up rate of rebar increased, and the start - up rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased [6][43]. - Downstream: The start - up rate of automobile all - steel tires decreased, and that of semi - steel tires remained unchanged [6][43]. Investment - Rebar: Apparent consumption was sluggish, but the price increased slightly week - on - week [7][61]. - Cement: The shipping rate decreased week - on - week, the inventory - to - capacity ratio increased, and the price decreased week - on - week [7][61]. Trade - Export: Port container throughput increased, the CCFI composite index continued to rise, and the BDI index increased week - on - week [8][75]. - Import: The CICFI composite index increased slightly week - on - week [8][75]. Price - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased week - on - week. Egg, vegetable, and fruit prices rose, while pork prices decreased [9][87]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased week - on - week. Brent crude oil spot price decreased, COMEX gold futures price increased, and LME copper spot price increased. In the commodity futures market, caustic soda, copper, and soda ash led the gains, while glass, live pigs, and asphalt led the losses [9][92][106]. Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next week (11/17 - 11/21), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 400.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 257 billion yuan. As of November 14, the 2 - trillion - yuan replacement bonds this year are basically issued. The issuance progress of new general bonds is 87.8%, and that of new special bonds is 94.3% [10][110][114]. Policy Weekly Observation - The central bank pointed out the need to pay attention to important interest - rate comparison relationships such as the yields of different types of assets. There were also various policy events and macro - data releases during the week [120][121].