固收周度点评20251115：3-5Y政金债的结构性行情-20251116

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market remained in a narrow - range oscillation this week, with both bullish and bearish sentiments cautious and waiting for a direction. There is a low probability of a total monetary easing policy, and banks are unlikely to significantly increase bond - buying. The 3 - 5Y government - financial bonds are expected to benefit from the reinvestment of amortized - cost bond funds [1][19][24]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Bond Market Review: Narrow - Range Oscillation Pattern Unbroken - This week, despite the rise of the equity market, the release of the central bank's Q3 monetary policy implementation report, and October's social financing and economic data, the bond market's reaction was limited. The 10Y Treasury bond's active coupon rate maintained a daily amplitude of no more than 1BP in a sideways state. The overall performance of the bond market this week was as follows: on Monday, the bond market oscillated slightly higher; on Tuesday and Wednesday, it oscillated narrowly with the 5Y CDB bond performing stronger; on Thursday, it adjusted slightly under the pressure of the equity market; on Friday, it continued to oscillate narrowly. Compared with November 7th, as of November 14th, the 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y ChinaBond Treasury bond yields were up 0.6BP, down 0.6BP, unchanged, and down 1BP respectively [7][8][9]. 2. Subtle Changes in the Sideways Market: Re - discussion of Monetary Policy and the Structural Market of 3 - 5Y Government - Financial Bonds 2.1 Monetary Policy Implementation Report: Discussions on Broad Monetary Policy Expectations and Institutional Behavior - Will there be a total monetary easing policy under the demand for stable growth? The probability is considered low. Firstly, one cannot deduce broad - money expectations from weak social financing and economic data as the monetary policy report emphasizes a scientific view of financial aggregate indicators. Secondly, when the effective financing demand of the real economy and the banks' own willingness are limited, structural monetary policies may be better than injecting base money. Thirdly, the mention of corporate financing rates in the report aims to avoid excessive "involution" of lending rates rather than reducing Treasury bond rates [19][20][21]. - Will banks shift to large - scale bond - buying since "a slightly lower loan growth rate is reasonable"? The answer is no. From the perspective of the overall bank's balance - sheet scale, its expansion speed may slow down, and the weakening of credit supply may limit banks' bond - buying demand. At the same time, there may be a greater supply - demand mismatch in the bond market. From the perspective of the bank's investment structure, loans and bonds are not in a "either - or" relationship, and bonds are not more advantageous [23]. 2.2 Reinvestment of Amortized - Cost Bond Funds: 3 - 5Y Government - Financial Bonds May Receive Marginal Funds - Amortized - cost bond funds are maturing intensively, and their funds will mainly be reinvested in 3 - 5Y high - grade general - credit bonds. In the past two weeks, 4 - 5Y urban investment bonds, general financial bonds, and medium - term notes performed strongly. The 3 - 5Y government - financial bonds also benefited, with joint - stock banks being the main buyers this week, with an average daily net purchase of 2.6 billion yuan, while funds were the main sellers, with an average daily net sale of 2.1 billion yuan. The logic that 3 - 5Y credit bonds and government - financial bonds will benefit is expected to continue from November - December this year to Q1 next year [24][25]. 3. Future Outlook: Waiting for Breakthrough Factors - After multiple factors such as China - US tariff negotiations, central - bank bond - buying, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" were settled, the market is in a period of confusion lacking incremental information. In the short term, both bullish and bearish sides may remain cautious as issues like the cross - year allocation market, next year's economic tone, and fundamental recovery need time to be verified [4][30].