农林牧渔行业研究：猪价震荡偏弱，看好产能去化加速

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, with expectations of price declines and potential capacity reduction [3][24]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, but underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The pig farming industry is currently experiencing a downward price trend, with average pig prices at 11.73 CNY/kg, indicating a 1.51% decrease week-on-week [23][24]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, particularly in yellow-feathered chicken prices, which have improved due to better downstream demand [4][40]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory is on a downward trend [5][44]. - The planting sector is facing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if grain production decreases significantly [6][48]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing positive price trends for certain products [64][68]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.48 kg, remaining high historically, but prices are expected to continue declining due to increased supply and limited seasonal storage capacity [3][24]. - The industry is currently in a loss-making state, with self-breeding profits at -114.81 CNY per head [23][24]. - Recommendations include focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [24]. Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices are under pressure, averaging 7.12 CNY/kg, while yellow feather chicken prices are showing improvement due to demand recovery [4][40]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming remains challenged, but there are signs of recovery in the market [4][40]. Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are stable at 26.87 CNY/kg, with expectations for gradual increases as the consumption season approaches [5][44]. - The dairy sector is experiencing a decrease in average purchase prices, but there is potential for stabilization in raw milk prices next year [5][44]. Planting Sector - Domestic corn prices are at 2170.00 CNY/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop releases and external uncertainties [6][48]. - The sector is positioned at a low point but could improve if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][48]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are stable at 3.33 CNY/kg, while prices for various fish species are showing upward trends [64][68]. - The aquaculture sector is experiencing price increases for shrimp and other seafood products, indicating a positive market outlook [64][68].