Guohai Securities·2025-11-16 06:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry, indicating that the AI bubble is still in its early stages, closer to the year 1997 of the internet era rather than 1999 [3]. Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the potential risks of a bubble in the US AI industry, methods to measure the extent of the AI bubble, and how these indicators compare to the internet era [3]. - Five dimensions are used to monitor the AI bubble's degree, including Capex/GDP, Capex/revenue, revenue growth rate, valuation, and funding quality [3]. - The AI industry is experiencing a shift from a "cash flow battle" to a "financing battle," with increased competition and a focus on efficiency [5]. Summary by Sections Five Dimensions to Monitor AI Bubble Degree - Capex/GDP: Approaching or exceeding levels seen during the internet bubble, with AI technology's adoption and its impact on GDP growth occurring at a faster pace than in the past [3]. - Capex/Revenue: High Capex relative to AI-related revenue, but still manageable compared to free cash flow [3]. - Revenue Growth Rate: AI-related revenue growth is on par with Capex growth, with large AI tech companies showing stronger financial health than their internet bubble counterparts [3]. - Valuation: Valuations are nearing internet bubble levels, but strong profit support and high market concentration among tech giants enhance their market influence [3]. - Funding Quality: Remains healthy, although there are concerns that funding quality may decline due to rising interest rates and the influence of new players in cloud computing [3]. Credit Cycle Positioning - A new round of the US corporate credit cycle has begun, primarily driven by the AI industry, while the US consumer credit cycle is still in a downward trend [5][9]. AI Industry Changes - The AI industry is facing intensified competition, with a shift in focus from cash flow to financing, leading to a decline in revenue quality due to cyclical trading [5]. AI Industry Core Issues - The primary challenge in the AI industry is enhancing efficiency, with limited new productivity and a reliance on existing ToB clients for orders [5].