钢铁价格磨底蓄势，重申看多板块配置

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is showing signs of recovery with a slight increase in prices and production, despite facing supply-demand imbalances and overall profit declines. The report suggests that the implementation of "stability growth" policies will support demand in real estate and infrastructure, leading to a potential marginal improvement in steel demand [4][6]. - The report highlights that the steel industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with a tightening supply due to policy expectations and increasing industry concentration. This is anticipated to create structural investment opportunities, particularly for high-margin special steel companies and leading enterprises with strong cost control [4][6]. Supply Situation - As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 88.8%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points week-on-week. Electric furnace utilization stands at 53.2%, up by 2.31 percentage points [26]. - The total production of five major steel products is 7.261 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 229,800 tons, or 3.07% [26]. Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products is 8.606 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 63,300 tons, or 0.73% [34]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 100,000 tons, which is an increase of 370 tons, or 3.87% week-on-week [34]. Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.614 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 136,100 tons, or 1.27%, but an increase of 30.61% year-on-year [42]. - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.160 million tons, down by 126,100 tons, or 2.94% week-on-week, and up by 6.35% year-on-year [42]. Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,422.3 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2.47 yuan/ton, but a year-on-year decrease of 6.85% [48]. - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -29 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the profit for electric arc furnace-produced construction steel is -155 yuan/ton, up by 7 yuan/ton week-on-week [54]. Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 786 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [71]. - The price of primary metallurgical coke is 1,935 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 55 yuan/ton [71]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Shandong Steel and Hualing Steel, as well as companies with excellent growth potential like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [4].