Minsheng Securities·2025-11-16 06:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several companies as key investment opportunities [6][7]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the end of the U.S. government shutdown and improving liquidity will support price performance in the metals market. It notes that macroeconomic factors, including weak economic data and interest rate cut expectations, will continue to influence metal prices positively [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, while the SW Nonferrous Index rose by 0.20% during the week [3]. - Precious metals like gold and silver saw significant increases, with gold up by 1.91% and silver by 4.51% [3]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index and expectations of interest rate cuts, despite a decrease in import volumes due to operational inefficiencies at Tanzanian ports [4][48]. - Aluminum production capacity remained stable, with domestic supply holding firm. However, demand is expected to weaken as the market transitions from peak to off-peak seasons [4][27]. - The report recommends companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum for investment [4]. 2.2 Energy Metals - The report is optimistic about energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, due to sustained demand from the energy storage sector and electric vehicles. Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply shortages [5]. - Key companies recommended include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [5]. 2.3 Precious Metals - The report anticipates continued upward movement in gold and silver prices, driven by central bank purchases and weakening U.S. dollar credit. It highlights geopolitical tensions as a significant factor influencing precious metal prices [5][80]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Western Gold and Shandong Gold [5]. 3. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, noting that aluminum prices are expected to range between 21,700 and 22,400 CNY/ton, while copper is projected to fluctuate between 86,000 and 89,000 CNY/ton [28][49]. - Inventory levels for aluminum and copper have shown mixed trends, with some increases in LME stocks for zinc and lead [14][50]. 4. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for several companies, with Zijin Mining projected to have an EPS of 1.21 CNY in 2024, and Huayou Cobalt expected to reach 2.50 CNY [6].