Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-16 07:32Investment Themes - Theme 1: Technology consumption expands commercialization paths, AI and instant retail explore incremental growth. Continuous investment in instant retail and AI tracks, rational competition in instant retail, and enhanced deployment capabilities of AI models are expected to drive long-term growth. Recommended companies include Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, and JD [3] - Theme 2: New consumption structure remains prosperous, and Chinese brands globalize. Short-term focus on tax burden recovery and Spring Festival catalysts, while long-term emphasis on product design and branding capabilities. Recommended companies include Laopuhuangjin, Chaohongji, Caibai, and others [4] - Theme 3: Trade stability improves, and supply-side reforms strengthen domestic consumption. The relative easing of tariffs between China and the US, along with strong growth in emerging markets, supports high market prosperity. Recommended company is Xiaoshangpincheng [5] Macro Overview - Domestic demand is boosted, and cutting-edge technology drives new consumption scenarios. The online retail penetration rate continues to rise, with online retail sales growing by 9.8% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, reaching 11.3 trillion yuan [11][30] - The retail sales total increased by 4.5% year-on-year, reaching 36.6 trillion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, indicating stable growth [11] E-commerce Focus - E-commerce platforms are focusing on experience and efficiency, with AI and instant retail becoming new engines. The integration of AI into consumer applications and supply chain management is enhancing operational efficiency and user experience [14][42] - The overall industry flow is rising, but profit margins are under pressure due to increased investments in instant retail and AI [33] Consumer Trends - Emotional consumption is on the rise, with consumers willing to pay a premium for emotional satisfaction and psychological comfort. The emotional economy market in China is expected to exceed 2.3 trillion yuan by 2024 [19] - The Chinese toy market is expanding rapidly, with the total value expected to reach 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, growing at an annual rate of over 20% [19] AI and Technology Integration - AI is becoming a new competitive field for internet companies, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and applications. Alibaba's cloud revenue grew by 26% in Q2 2025, driven by AI-related products [42] - Major platforms are exploring commercial paths through differentiated AI applications and external ecosystem collaboration [43] Local Life and Instant Retail - The competition in instant retail is stabilizing, with platforms adjusting strategies to focus on efficiency rather than just volume. Daily order volumes for Meituan and Taobao are stabilizing at 70-80 million, while JD's remains around 10 million [51] - Instant retail has successfully cultivated consumer mindsets, leading to significant increases in monthly usage across platforms [55] International Expansion - Platforms are pursuing differentiated paths for international expansion, with Alibaba focusing on a light-asset model and Pinduoduo leveraging social dynamics for growth. JD is emphasizing localized operations in Europe, while Meituan replicates its local life model in new markets [61] - The export value of Yiwu continues to grow, with a total import and export value of 631.2 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.3% [70]