宏观周报：国内经济稳增长，海外风险再上升-20251116

Domestic Economic Overview - In October, China's economic data showed contractions in both supply and demand, but structural highlights remain in consumption upgrades and new productivity[1] - The retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of November dropped by 18.8% year-on-year, while metro passenger volume increased by 4.0% year-on-year[2] - Fixed asset investment from January to October decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, indicating a need for increased investment to support economic growth[7] Production and Pricing Trends - As of November 16, the operating rate of blast furnaces was 82.79%, down 0.36 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a seasonal decline in production[3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.19% week-on-week drop in pork prices, while vegetable prices stabilized with a 0.14% increase[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) reflected mixed performance in black commodities, with coking coal prices down by 3.86% and iron ore prices up by 0.53%[7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been completed, with general government bonds issued amounting to 3093.2 billion yuan, achieving 89.5% of the issuance target[7] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating a policy intent to maintain liquidity in the banking system[7] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 10-year yield at 1.8140% and the 30-year yield at 2.1481%[7] International Economic Context - The U.S. government ended a 43-day shutdown, with potential losses estimated at 1.5 trillion USD, impacting economic data releases[8] - New tariffs have been signed by Trump, adjusting the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" and affecting trade relations with multiple countries[8] - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty regarding inflation data due to the risk of missing October's CPI release, complicating monetary policy decisions[8]