有机硅欲“反内卷”，硅片企业联合挺价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices have a clearer lower limit, and it is more cost - effective to go long on dips. Polysilicon is expected to return to a volatile market, with the main contract operating between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week to 9020 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8850 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 830 yuan/ton to 54045 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Organic Silicon "Anti - involution", Silicon Wafer Enterprises Jointly Support Prices - Industrial Silicon: The futures main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. Southwest China may have further furnace shutdowns during the dry season. The social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.06 million tons. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory build - up in November and a de - stocking of about 1 million tons in December, but "anti - involution" in organic silicon may affect December's de - stocking [11] - Organic Silicon: The price of organic silicon increased. The industry reached a consensus on production cut and price support. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 73.62%, the weekly output was 48,700 tons (a 1.67% increase), and the inventory was 42,100 tons (a 3.22% decrease). The success of "anti - involution" depends on production cut implementation [12] - Polysilicon: The futures main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. The spot mainly delivered previous orders. Considering the dry season, the production schedule in November is expected to drop to 115,000 tons. As of November 13, the factory inventory was 267,000 tons (an increase of 0.8 million tons). The spot price depends on the game between policy and fundamentals. It is expected to remain flat in November [13] - Silicon Wafer: The price of silicon wafers was volatile. After a price cut on Tuesday, several enterprises jointly raised prices on Thursday. The production cut is not obvious, with a production schedule of 57 - 58GW in November. As of November 13, the inventory was 18.42GW (an increase of 0.9GW). The price is expected to fluctuate [14] - Battery Cell: The price of battery cells continued to decline. Indian demand shifted, and domestic demand also decreased. As of November 10, the inventory was 5.81GW (an increase of 1.96GW). The production schedule in November is 57.4GW. The price may loosen further [15] - Component: The component price was basically stable. Some high - power component quotes increased. The demand declined, and the production schedule in November is expected to be 44.4GW (a decrease of 1GW). There are concerns about a significant decline in December's production schedule [16] 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Industrial Silicon: After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. The price needs to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to increase supply. It is more cost - effective to go long on dips [3] - Polysilicon: The spot price is expected to remain stable in November. The futures may return to a volatile market, with the main contract operating between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [3] 3.4 Hot News Summaries - Silicon Wafer Enterprises Jointly Support Prices: Several silicon wafer enterprises jointly raised prices to support "anti - involution" competition. The actual transaction depends on downstream acceptance [18] - Positive Results in Photovoltaic Industry Self - regulation: The self - regulation of the photovoltaic industry has achieved positive results. Product prices are gradually stabilizing, and the situation where polysilicon prices are below cost has improved [18] - Statement on Online False News: The association is promoting industry self - regulation and "anti - involution" work. Online rumors are false information [19] 3.5 Industry Chain High - frequency Data Tracking - Industrial Silicon: It includes data on spot prices, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory [21][24][26][28] - Organic Silicon: It includes data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [32][34] - Polysilicon: It includes data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [36][40] - Silicon Wafer: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [41][43][44] - Battery Cell: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [49][51][54][55] - Component: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, finished product inventory, and enterprise monthly production [57][59][60][61]