Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-16 08:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili-W (09626) [2] Core Insights - Bilibili achieved a revenue of 7.69 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%, which met expectations; the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 790 million yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 22%, with a profit margin of 10.2%, continuing to improve quarter-on-quarter [5] - User engagement metrics reached historical highs, with MAU growing 8% year-on-year to 376 million and DAU increasing 9% to 117 million, indicating strong user stickiness [8] - Advertising revenue accelerated with a year-on-year growth rate of 23%, while game revenue declined by 17%, aligning with expectations due to a high base effect [8] - The company continues to optimize operational efficiency, with a gross margin of 36.7% and a 6% year-on-year reduction in absolute values of operating expenses [8] - The report highlights two upward potential drivers: community monetization through gaming and AI applications, which could enhance content ecosystem and advertising efficiency [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Bilibili are as follows: - 2023: 22.53 billion yuan - 2024: 26.83 billion yuan - 2025E: 30.21 billion yuan - 2026E: 33.30 billion yuan - 2027E: 36.16 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: -3.43 billion yuan - 2024: -0.02 billion yuan - 2025E: 2.57 billion yuan - 2026E: 3.02 billion yuan - 2027E: 4.05 billion yuan [7][9]