市场持续“高切低”,坚守出海+区域景气龙头
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-11-16 09:09

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction and decoration industry, emphasizing long-term growth logic, low valuations, and high dividend yields [12][15][22]. Core Viewpoints - The market has been characterized by a "high cut low" trend since the fourth quarter, with the dividend index rising by 8.3% from early October, significantly outperforming major indices [2][15]. - The construction sector has shown significant underperformance year-to-date, with a rise of only 11.6%, ranking 23rd among 30 industries, while valuations remain at historical lows [2][22]. - Key investment directions include overseas expansion driven by urbanization and industrialization in emerging markets, and regional economic support in areas like Sichuan and Xinjiang [3][7][15]. Summary by Sections Overseas Demand and Expansion - The report highlights the sustained high demand for overseas construction, driven by urbanization and industrialization in emerging countries, such as Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" and various infrastructure investment plans in Southeast Asia [3][24]. - Chinese companies are accelerating their overseas operations, with 3,667 A-share companies disclosing overseas revenue, totaling 9.52 trillion yuan, a 56.58% increase from 2020 [3][27]. - Recommended companies benefiting from this trend include China Chemical Engineering, Jinggong Steel Structure, Jianghe Group, and China National Materials [6][15][22]. Regional Economic Opportunities - The report identifies Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Tibet as regions likely to receive significant policy support, with Sichuan positioned as a strategic hub for national development [7][29]. - Investment in Xinjiang's coal chemical industry is projected to accelerate, with estimated annual investments of 690 billion yuan in 2025, 1,293 billion yuan in 2026, and 2,156 billion yuan in 2027 [7][30]. - Key companies recommended in this context include Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical Engineering, Sanwei Chemical, and Donghua Technology [7][15][35]. High Dividend Yield Opportunities - Many recommended companies have committed to high dividend payouts, with Sichuan Road and Bridge promising a minimum payout ratio of 60% from 2025 to 2027, and Jinggong Steel Structure committing to at least 70% [8][35]. - Expected dividend yields for 2026 are projected at 6.6% for Sichuan Road and Bridge, 6.3% for Jinggong Steel Structure, and 5.4% for China National Materials, indicating strong investment appeal [8][35]. Semiconductor Cleanroom Sector - The report notes that the AI development wave is driving demand for semiconductor cleanrooms, with global investment expected to reach 168 billion yuan by 2025 [9][35]. - Key players in this sector include Yaxin Integration, Shenghui Integration, and Bocheng Co., which are positioned to benefit from the expanding market [9][35]. Commercial Satellite Sector - The report emphasizes the increasing support for the commercial aerospace industry, with a focus on low-orbit satellite constellations and a projected surge in satellite launches starting next year [10][11]. - Recommended companies in this area include Shanghai Port Bay, which is expected to benefit from the increase in launch activities [10][11].