地缘关系紧张，股指高位遇阻

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, global stock markets rose initially and then fell, with significant fluctuations. Overseas, the potential end of the US government shutdown and unannounced economic data have created uncertainty. Domestically, the A - share market saw a recovery in pharmaceutical and consumer stocks and an adjustment in technology stocks, but current fundamental pressures are increasing. The market is expected to experience intensified high - level oscillations and a higher probability of a downward trend. Attention should be paid to Sino - Japanese relations, the possibility of real - estate tax implementation, and the impact on export - chain enterprises due to Tesla's requirements [2][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview 3.1.1 Next - Week View - The market's high - level oscillations will intensify, and the probability of a downward trend is increasing. Three factors need attention: Sino - Japanese relations, the possibility of real - estate tax implementation, and the impact on export - chain enterprises from Tesla's requirements [2][10] 3.1.2 This Week's Key Event Focus - On November 10th, central enterprises completed over 3 trillion yuan in fixed - asset investment in the first three quarters, with about 40% in emerging industries. The State Council issued 13 measures to promote private investment [11][12] - On November 11th, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds were fully disbursed. The central bank released the Q3 monetary policy report, emphasizing a moderately loose monetary policy [13][15] - On November 12th, overseas investors' holdings of A - shares exceeded 3.5 trillion yuan [16] - On November 13th, in October, M2 increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year [17] - On November 14th, China's economic indicators in October declined. The State Council meeting studied the in - depth implementation of "two major" construction work [18][20] 3.2 One - Week Market Quotes Overview 3.2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From November 10th to 14th, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 0.41%, with frontier markets (+1.20%) > developed markets (+0.43%) > emerging markets (+0.29%). The South African stock market led the world with a 5.2% increase, while the Taiwan, China stock market had the worst performance, falling 1.88% [21] 3.2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - During the same period, Chinese equity assets showed mixed performance, with Hong Kong stocks > A - shares > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2044 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.4 billion yuan from last week. Among A - share broad - based indices, the micro - cap stock index had the best performance, rising 3.10%, while the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index had a decline of 3.85% [24] 3.2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - This week, global GICS primary industries showed mixed performance. The healthcare sector led with a 3.94% increase, while the consumer discretionary sector performed poorly, falling 1.19%. In the Chinese market, healthcare led with a 3.27% increase, and information technology lagged with a 4.27% decline [27] 3.2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - Among A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 20 rose (17 last week) and 10 fell (13 last week). The consumer services sector led with a 4.81% increase, and the communication sector led the decline with a 4.90% decrease [28] 3.2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles: Large - Cap Value Prevailed - This week, value stocks outperformed growth stocks, and the market - capitalization style favored large - cap stocks [33] 3.2.6 Futures Basis Overview - Information presented through relevant charts, but no specific data summarized in text [36] 3.3 Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview 3.3.1 Broad - Based Index Valuation - Provided PE and PB data for various broad - based indices this week, including their eight - year percentiles, values at the beginning of the year, and changes during the year [44] 3.3.2 Primary Industry Valuation - Provided PE and PB data for various primary industries this week, including their eight - year percentiles, values at the beginning of the year, and changes during the year [45] 3.3.3 Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [46][51] 3.3.4 Broad - Based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 8.73% and up to 9.23% in 2026; the CSI 500's 2025 rate was adjusted down to 27.88% and 2026 down to 20.68%; the CSI 1000's 2025 rate was adjusted down to 28.62% and 2026 up to 25.56% [52] 3.4 Liquidity and Fund Flow Tracking 3.4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year yield declined, the 1 - year yield increased, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 99.3, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.10 [60] 3.4.2 Trading - Type Fund Tracking - This week, the average daily northbound trading volume decreased by 17.8 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 12.6 billion yuan [64] 3.4.3 Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There were 29 on - exchange ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 29 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 300 million, the share of those tracking the CSI 500 increased by 120 million, the share of those tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 40 million, and the share of those tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 2.9 billion [67][72] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data 3.5.1 Supply - Side: Crude Steel Production Contracted - Information presented through relevant charts, such as the national blast - furnace operating rate and domestic crude steel daily output [74] 3.5.2 Consumption - Side: Real - Estate Transactions Remained Sluggish - Information presented through relevant charts, including the transaction area of first - hand and second - hand houses in major cities, and land transaction area [82] 3.5.3 Inflation Observation: Producer Goods Prices Stabilized, and Agricultural Product Prices Rebounded - Producer goods prices gradually stabilized, and agricultural product prices continued to recover [92]