Huaxin Securities·2025-11-16 10:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage & commercial sectors [10][61]. Core Insights - The October data indicates a recovery in the restaurant sector, benefiting from the dual holiday effect, leading to improved sentiment in the sector [6][60]. - The liquor sector is experiencing a positive market sentiment, with companies showing resilience despite ongoing performance adjustments [6][59]. - The overall consumer sector is showing signs of improvement, with October retail sales reaching 46,291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [7][60]. Summary by Sections Industry News - In October, liquor consumption prices decreased by 2% year-on-year, while retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by 4.1% [5][19]. - JD Supermarket reported an 18% year-on-year growth in liquor sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival [5][19]. Investment Views - The liquor sector is benefiting from positive consumer sentiment, with a shift towards recovery in valuations after a prolonged period of suppression [6][59]. - Recommendations include high-dividend leaders such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as flexible stocks like Jiu Gui Jiu and She De Jiu Ye [6][59]. Key Company Feedback - The report highlights the performance of key companies, with notable increases in stock prices for She De Jiu Ye and Jiu Gui Jiu, reflecting positive market trends [30][31]. - The liquor industry's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 796.4 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [34]. Core Data Trends - The cumulative production of liquor in 2024 is expected to be 4.145 million tons, a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and strategic adjustments among leading companies to navigate the competitive landscape [60].