原油周度报告-20251116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global crude oil supply is generally abundant, but trade flows are severely distorted due to sanctions. The key characteristic is the "high in - transit inventory," which exerts pressure on immediate - delivery oil prices. Russian supply is the main variable, while other major producers' supply is stable or increasing [6]. - Global crude oil demand shows regional differentiation, with weak demand in China being the main drag. The current slowdown in demand is more driven by short - term policy and maintenance factors rather than a broad - based macro - economic recession [7]. - Suggestions: beware of further price drops; Brent and WTI may test lows before April at the end of this year and early next year, and may even reach $50 per barrel, while the decline of SC may be less than that of foreign benchmarks; although the current decline in oil prices has accelerated under the influence of trade frictions, it is difficult for the medium - to - long - term decline to happen overnight. Pay attention to potential reversals in macro - expectations, as oil price volatility may increase [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Global oil supply is abundant, and trade flows are distorted. Russian supply is affected by sanctions, while other producers' supply is stable or growing. Demand is regionally differentiated, with China's weakness being the main drag [6][7]. 3.2 Macro - The gold - oil ratio has stabilized. Attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate has weakened slightly, and social financing has declined [24][30][35]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ production: OPEC8's production increase completion rate in October was 80%. OPEC+ may only increase the production target by 137,000 barrels per day in the November 2nd meeting and will suspend production increases in the first quarter of 2026 [37]. - Supply from various countries: Russia's supply is affected by sanctions and port attacks; the United States' shale oil production remains at a high level; Brazil's exports are growing significantly; other countries' supply shows different trends [10][11]. 3.4 Demand - Regional demand is differentiated. China's demand has weakened significantly, mainly due to refinery maintenance and sanctions. India and Europe's demand is relatively stable. Refining profits in the US and Europe are strong, but there are concerns about sanctions [7][12]. 3.5 Inventory - US commercial inventories have stabilized, while Cushing inventories are still significantly lower than historical averages. European diesel inventories have rebounded, and gasoline inventories have decreased. Domestic refined oil inventories in China show different trends [76][81][83]. 3.6 Price and Spread - Spot market: The spot market in the Western region is recovering under the influence of sanctions. Different regions and oil types have different price trends [88][93]. - Basis: The North American basis has rebounded. - Calendar spread: The calendar spread has rebounded slightly. - SC valuation: SC valuation is at a medium - to - low level, and the calendar spread has stabilized. - Net long positions: Net long positions have rebounded [96][97][100].