镍：镍价破位下行，承压震荡运行，不锈钢：弱现实压制钢价，但下方难言广阔

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the price has broken through the support level and is expected to fluctuate under pressure. The current situation is dominated by the contradiction of smelting inventory accumulation, and both the current and expected supply - demand situation restricts the upward flexibility of Shanghai nickel. However, there are risks in short - selling at low levels due to Indonesian policies. The volatility may increase, and options can be used for protection [1]. - For stainless steel, weak market conditions suppress the steel price, but the downside is limited. The overall macro data is slightly below expectations, and the fundamentals lack upward drivers. Although there is a slight supply surplus, the cost limits the downward space, and there are also concerns about Indonesian policies, so the steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: On November 14, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 3,563 tons to 54,243 tons. Among them, warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2,393 tons to 35,027 tons, spot inventory increased by 1,170 tons to 15,446 tons, and bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3,770 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,014 tons to 252,090 tons [3]. - New energy: On November 14, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by - 1, 0, 0 month - on - month to 4, 9, 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory on November 14 changed by - 1 month - on - month to 12.1 days; the ternary material inventory on November 13 changed by - 0.2 month - on - month to 6.9 days [5]. - Nickel - iron and stainless steel: On October 31, SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,564 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and a year - on - year increase of 27%. In October, SMM stainless steel mill inventory was 1.574 million tons, with a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of 9%/3%. On November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel monitored by Steel Union was 1,070,555 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.53%. The total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 659,952 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.19% [5]. 3.2 Market News - On September 12, due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [7]. - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted if the companies submit claim plan documents and put the claim guarantee until 2025 [7]. - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15 this year. According to the transition clause, if the 2026 RKAB adjustment has been applied for online and has not been approved by the end of this year, the 2026 RKAB approved by the minister or governor before the order comes into effect can still be used as the basis for exploration or production operations until March 31, 2026 [8]. - US President Trump claimed on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [8]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" [9]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to adjust nickel production and production quotas in 2026 and cut nickel production in the 2026 work plan and cost budget [9]. 3.3 Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as prices and spreads of related products such as imported nickel, nickel beans, and nickel - iron [11].