雨季后几内亚矿山迎来恢复性发货，氧化铝检修规模扩大

Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillation [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is currently in an oversupply situation, with prices having theoretical downward space, but excessive speculation is not advisable. If there is a price rebound, a bearish approach can be considered [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. After the rainy season in Shanxi and Henan, some mines are gradually resuming production, but supply improvement is short - term difficult due to strict mining control. Guinean mines are resuming shipments after the rainy season, with 430.5 million tons of new ore arriving, including 320.6 million tons from Guinea and 92.9 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China dropped slightly [2][12]. - Alumina: Spot prices declined slightly last week. After downstream replenishment, demand decreased. The import window closed. The full - cost of domestic alumina was 2,818 yuan/ton with a real - time profit of 64 yuan/ton. Due to accumulating losses, the number of maintenance increased, with operating capacity decreasing by 1.05 million tons to 95.8 million tons and an operating rate of 83.6% [3][13]. - Demand: Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was stable at 44.233 million tons. Overseas, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 300,000 tons to 29.581 million tons [14]. - Inventory: As of November 13th, the national alumina inventory increased by 83,000 tons to 4.301 million tons, due to factors such as efficient shipping and import arrivals [14]. - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE remained unchanged at 253,654 tons [15]. 2. Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain This Week - Alumina import profit decreased slightly. The Australian alumina quote was stable at around $320/ton, and the theoretical import profit in the north dropped to about - 31 yuan/ton [16]. - Alumina production cuts were more frequent. The operating capacity decreased by 1.05 million tons this week and 2.75 million tons compared to the maximum in 60 days [16]. - In 2026, the expected new alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.2 million tons (excluding potentially un - launched capacity in 2025), or 13.9 million tons if including it. Southern new capacity is more likely to be launched in the first half of the year [16]. 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - Raw Materials and Cost: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, port inventories, shipping volumes, and prices of other raw materials like caustic soda and thermal coal, as well as the production costs of alumina in different provinces [17][24][26]. - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It shows domestic and imported alumina prices, the ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina. The supply - demand balance shows the relationship between alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacities and the supply - demand gap over time [31][38][39]. - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: This part presents data on alumina inventories in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, yards, ports, and the total social inventory, as well as the warehouse receipts and positions of alumina on the SHFE [41][44][47]