申万宏源2026年A股投资策略概要：牛市两段论

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the global competition has intensified, and A-shares should embrace a competitive mindset, reflecting the reality of pricing competition [2][4] - The migration of Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities is still in its early stages, which could drive a bull market, with the macroeconomic framework indicating that the accumulation of A-share profitability is undergoing a qualitative change [3][5] - The report outlines a "two-phase bull market" theory, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026, followed by a potential "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [6][10] Group 2 - The report predicts that 2026 will see a significant rebound in profitability, with the first double-digit growth in net profit for A-shares in five years, forecasting a 7% growth in 2025 and 14% in 2026 [13] - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will likely favor high-dividend defensive stocks, while the latter phase will be characterized by cyclical stocks leading the market [10][13] - Three structural clues for 2026 include recovery trades in basic chemicals and industrial metals, opportunities in the AI industry chain, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [14]