能源化工尿素周度报告-20251116

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report - Report Date: November 16, 2025 - Analyst: Yang Honghan - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0021541 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The urea market is expected to operate within a range, with valuation being more important than drivers. The domestic fundamental pressure is high, but the downward driving force is weakened by policy regulation. In November, with mid - stream replenishment and the fourth batch of export quotas driving speculation, spot trading has continuously improved, and the inventory accumulation of upstream enterprises is expected to slow down significantly. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton (support) and 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton (pressure) [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - Urea Basis: Multiple charts show the basis data of different enterprises (Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping) from 2019 - 2025 [5][6][7][8]. - Urea Monthly Spread and Warehouse Receipts: Charts present the monthly spread data of 5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1 from 2019 - 2025, and the warehouse receipt quantity data from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][11][13]. - Urea Domestic Spot Price: Show the domestic spot price trends of different enterprises (Zhengyuan, Hebei, Dongguang, Shandong) from 2019 - 2025 [15][16][17][18]. - Urea International Spot Price: Display the international spot price trends of different regions (Baltic Sea, China, Brazil, Middle East) from 2018 - 2025 [19][20]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - Capacity: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea production capacity continues. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 7,160,000 tons. Many enterprises have new production capacity or capacity replacement plans [23]. - Production Enterprises' Maintenance Plan: List the maintenance plans of multiple urea production enterprises, including the start and end dates, loss of production, and types of maintenance (normal, policy - related, fault, loss - cost) [25]. - Output: Currently, the production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains high. The daily output, capacity utilization rate, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented in the charts [26][27]. - Cost: Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. The cost calculations of Shanxi fixed - bed factories and the complete cost trends of urea in different production processes (entrained - flow bed, fixed - bed, natural gas) from 2018 - 2025 are provided [29][30][31][33]. - Profit: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The cash - flow profit of urea fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different production processes from 2018 - 2025 are shown in the charts [34][35][37][38][39]. - Net Import (Export): During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. The monthly net import (export) data from 2018 - 2025 (estimated) are provided, along with charts showing the export profit and export volume [40][41][42]. 3.3 Domestic Demand - Agricultural Demand: Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. Different regions and crops have different demand patterns throughout the year. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn [47][48][50]. - Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The compound fertilizer industry's fundamental situation includes production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate, with relevant data from 2019 - 2025 [54][55][56]. - Melamine: The fundamental situation of melamine includes production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate, with relevant data from 2018 - 2025 [57][58][59]. - Real Estate and Wood Products: The demand for wood - based panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but wood - product exports are resilient. Data on the export volume of plywood, oriented strand board, and real - estate construction and completion areas are provided [60][61]. 3.4 Inventory - Factory Inventory: On November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons (5.99% MoM) from the previous week. Some provinces' inventories decreased, while others increased [2][66]. - Port Inventory: As of November 13, 2025 (week 46), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 82,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons (3.8% MoM). Under the phased relaxation of export policies, the enthusiasm for cargo collection at ports has increased [2][66]. 3.5 International Urea - International Urea Price: Multiple charts show the FOB prices of large - granular urea in different regions (China, Baltic Sea, Middle East) and the CFR price in Brazil from 2018 - 2025 [70][71][72][73].