能源化工纸浆周度报告-20251116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The pulp market is expected to undergo high - level consolidation in the short term. The futures market is dominated by financial attributes, while the spot market remains firm due to cost support and limited available supply. It is recommended to monitor the inventory reduction pace and the change in the operating rate of downstream paper mills [98]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of November 13, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port increased by 6.3 tons week - on - week, a 12.5% rise; Qingdao Port's inventory rose by 5.0 tons, a 3.7% increase; and Gaolan Port's inventory decreased by 1.5 tons, a 26.8% decline. The total inventory of major Chinese pulp ports increased by 10.2 tons, a 5.1% rise [5][6]. - From January to September 2025, Finns Group reported a comparable operating loss of 27 million euros [6]. - Liaoning Yusen's 185,000 - ton second - phase project of household paper is expected to be put into production by the end of September next year [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On November 14, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 70 yuan/ton, down 33.96% week - on - week and 80.77% year - on - year; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 80 yuan/ton, up 72.79% week - on - week and 6.98% year - on - year; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 150 yuan/ton, down 62.50% week - on - week and 66.67% year - on - year [14]. - On November 14, 2025, the 01 - 03 month - spread was 32 yuan/ton, up 300.00% week - on - week; the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 14 yuan/ton, down 16.67% week - on - week [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - On November 14, 2025, the price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp was 1,150 yuan/ton, down 8.00% week - on - week and 34.29% year - on - year; the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 17.65% week - on - week and down 23.08% year - on - year [25]. - The import profit of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp continued to recover. In November, the import price of wood pulp was unclear, and paper mills were cautious [29]. - The price of imported coniferous pulp spot rose with the market, but paper mills were cautious in signing orders, and market transactions were mainly small orders [33]. - The price of imported broad - leaf pulp rose significantly, with an expected increase in import cost and a bullish market sentiment [36]. - The prices of Venus and Kunhe pulp on November 14, 2025, were 5,100 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [41]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China was generally stable this week, with individual increases [43]. - Domestic broad - leaf pulp prices rose this period, while the operating rate and output decreased; the operating rate and output of chemimechanical pulp increased [47]. - In September, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month, while the inventory days of coniferous pulp increased [51][52]. - In August, the shipment volume of W20 coniferous pulp was low, and the inventory was high; the shipment volume of broad - leaf pulp remained high, but the inventory days were low [56]. - In August, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, and Finland to China decreased month - on - month; in September, Finland's export volume to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, Chile's export volume to China increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [62]. - In September, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, Brazil's export volume decreased slightly month - on - month [63]. - In September, China's pulp import volume increased overall, with coniferous pulp up 12.52% month - on - month, broad - leaf pulp up 7.81% month - on - month, and chemimechanical pulp up 31.43% month - on - month [67]. 3.3.3 Demand - The average price of offset paper was basically stable, with poor profitability. Downstream consumption was scattered, but some users stocked up due to cost support [71]. - The average price of coated paper was stable, with a slight decrease in supply. The supply - demand relationship did not improve significantly [75]. - The price of white cardboard continued to rise. Although the production and sales situation changed little, the shipment increased in some local markets [79]. - The price of household paper was stable, with weak terminal demand and limited support from pulp prices [83]. - In October, the retail sales of cultural office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year [87]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 220,400 tons, down 1.66% week - on - week and 39.26% year - on - year [90]. - The port inventory was at a medium level this year, showing a slight accumulation trend. Qingdao Port's inventory shifted to an accumulation trend, and Changshu Port's inventory showed a narrow - range accumulation trend [95].