金银周报-20251116

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Weekly Report [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan [2] - Date: November 16, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Gold: There is a slight increase in market risk aversion due to geopolitical issues such as the Taiwan Strait situation. The release of backlogged economic data after the end of the US government shutdown may affect the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of these factors on gold prices [3]. - Silver: Although there is some pressure for silver to break through the previous high, it is only a matter of time to break through new highs. It is advisable to pay attention to the entry opportunities after this round of corrections [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - Price Performance - This week, London gold rose 1.93%, and London silver rose 6.81%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.1 to 78.4. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.86%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.14% (2 - year 3.62%), and the US dollar index was 99.28 [3]. - Various gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed different degrees of changes, such as the 7.55% increase in the weekly price of Shanghai Silver 2512 [4]. - Spread Analysis - Overseas Spread: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 2.241 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was 2.1 dollars per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 0.117 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was 0.58 dollars per ounce [9][12]. - Domestic Spread: The gold futures - spot spread was - 5.22 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was - 25 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.92 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 67 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16][19][23][28]. - Inventory and Position Analysis - COMEX Inventory: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 52.1%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 138 tons to 14,795 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 32.8% [37][39]. - Futures and Exchange Inventory: Gold futures inventory increased by 0.81 tons, silver futures inventory decreased by 46 tons to 576 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 82 tons to 822 tons [41]. - CFTC Position: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while that of silver decreased slightly [43]. - ETF Position: The inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 3.65 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 129 tons [49][51]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - Relationship with Real Interest Rates: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - Inflation and Retail Sales: Data on US PCE and core PCE year - on - year changes are presented, which can reflect the inflation situation and may affect gold prices [68]. - Non - farm Employment Performance: Information on indicators such as US non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates is provided, which are important factors affecting the Fed's monetary policy and gold prices [70][72][73].