铅产业链周度报告-20251116

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of primary lead is increasing, while the production of recycled lead is rising rapidly due to expanding profits. Although primary lead smelting is undergoing maintenance, the overall supply is on the rise. Consumption has temporarily stabilized, with battery factory operating rates rebounding and raw material purchases increasing. The price of lead is expected to fluctuate, with a recommended range - bound trading strategy. Long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets should be continued due to the increase in domestic lead inventories [3][5]. - The price range of lead is estimated to be between 17,200 - 17,700 yuan/ton, and the five - location total lead inventory has increased, though the absolute inventory remains at a historically low level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect - Price and Spread - The closing price of the main SHFE lead contract last week was 17,495 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.43%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,440 yuan/ton, with a night - session decline of 0.31%. The LME lead (0 - 3) spot premium decreased from - 10.74 to - 23.09 dollars/ton. The premium for lead in the bonded area remained unchanged at 95 dollars/ton, and the spot premium for Shanghai 1 lead remained at 0 yuan/ton. The spread between recycled lead and primary lead decreased from - 50 to - 100 yuan/ton, and the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased from - 60 to - 50 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory - SHFE lead warehouse receipts inventory increased by 9,124 tons to 31,027 tons, and the total SHFE lead inventory increased by 4,208 tons to 42,790 tons. Social inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 34,900 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 18,775 tons to 222,475 tons, with the proportion of cancelled warrants decreasing by 7.78 percentage points to 42.17% [6]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the main SHFE lead contract last week was 37,346 lots, an increase of 10,140 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 38,417 lots, a decrease of 21,401 lots. The trading volume of LME 3 - month lead was 17,127 lots, an increase of 6,820 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [6]. 3.2 Supply Aspect - Lead Concentrate - The import processing fee for 60% grade lead concentrate has remained at a low level. The actual consumption of lead concentrate has shown an upward trend. The profit from imported lead concentrate has increased, while the profit from domestic lead concentrate has remained stable. The operating rate of lead concentrate has shown fluctuations over the years [23][24]. - Primary and Recycled Lead - Primary lead production has increased, but some primary smelters in Anhui and other regions will enter the maintenance cycle. The profit of recycled lead has continued to expand, with stable prices and sufficient supply of waste batteries. Recycled lead enterprises in Anhui and Henan have continued to increase production [5]. 3.3 Demand Aspect - Lead - Acid Batteries - The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers have shown certain fluctuations. The export volume of batteries has also changed over the years [42]. - Terminal Consumption - The actual consumption of lead has shown an upward trend. The production of automobiles and motorcycles has also shown certain changes over the years, which has an impact on the demand for lead [44].