能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20251116

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short fiber is expected to be strong in the short - term and weak in the medium - term. The cost side should focus on the upward support brought by PX, etc. There may be a 1 - 2 week of phased inventory accumulation, but overall demand remains good [7]. - Bottle chips are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term. They will follow the cost to be strong in the short - term, but the inventory accumulation problem persists. The cost side should also focus on the upward support brought by PX, etc. The near - month processing fee is overestimated and has room for compression [9]. Summary by Directory Short Fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - Spot plus fee is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, neutral; the disk processing fee is 900 yuan/ton, relatively undervalued, and the month - spread is significantly contango and relatively low [8]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The average start - up rate reached 97.5%, and the start - up rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning reached 99.5%. It is expected to fluctuate around 95% in the fourth quarter [7]. - Demand: Domestic demand remains good in autumn and winter, and most profits in each textile link continue to recover. New orders have declined slightly month - on - month. Short - term export space is insufficient, and the export window period will be after December. India's cancellation of BIS certification requirements for various polyester products may bring new export increments in the short - term. Short fiber inventory has slightly increased [7]. - Strategy: Unilateral: oscillating and strong; Inter - period: consider small - scale positive arbitrage at low levels; Inter - variety: none [8]. Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, overestimated; the 12 and 01 disk processing fees are 450 - 500 yuan/ton, also overestimated [9]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory start - up rate is expected to remain around 80% in the fourth quarter. This week, it decreased slightly to 79.4%. After mid - December, the factory start - up rate may increase again [9][32]. - Demand: Demand continues to decline. The average start - up rate of beverage factories has dropped to around 60%, and the start - up rates of edible oil and sheet materials have also decreased. Exports from November to December are expected to be in the range of 55 - 60 tons. The inventory of bottle chip factories has increased to around 15.8 days [9]. - Strategy: Unilateral: none; Inter - period: basis and month - spread reverse arbitrage; Inter - variety: hold long TA and short PR positions for 12 and 01 contracts [9]. Market Conditions - Basis and near - month spreads have significantly weakened [22]. - The spot price this week was in the range of 5700 - 5920 yuan/ton, and the FOB price was in the range of 755 - 775 US dollars/ton [25]. - The bottle chip - PVC spread has been at a high level of 1000 - 1500 yuan/ton since 2024, with low driving force for further substitution. The cost - performance of bottle chips compared to PP and other general plastics is prominent, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [28][29]. Production and Start - up - Since 2024, the production capacity base has been continuously expanding, and the current effective production capacity has reached 2168 tons (CCF caliber). This week, the bottle chip load decreased slightly to 79.4% [32]. Raw Materials - PTA: New devices have been put into production, and supply - demand remains weak. The processing fee has fluctuated, and the load index has changed over time [39][41]. - MEG: Supply pressure has increased, and coal - based profits have been compressed. The load and port inventory have changed over time [45]. Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost fluctuates around 5250 yuan/ton. The bottle chip processing fee has been passively compressed, and the spot processing fee is around 450 yuan/ton. The export profit is about 800 - 850 yuan/ton [49]. Inventory - The domestic polyester bottle chip factory inventory has increased to around 16 days (CCF caliber). The estimated social inventory in September, October, and November is 277 tons, 302 tons, and 321 tons respectively [53]. Device Changes - Some devices have been shut down for maintenance, and the restart time has been postponed. For example, a 60 - ton polyester bottle chip device in Jiangyin, China Resources, stopped for maintenance in mid - September and is expected to restart in mid - November. New devices such as Fuhai's 30 - ton device are expected to be put into production at the end of November [59][60]. Demand - Beverage enterprises: The start - up rate has gradually declined to 50 - 75%. There are still many new production lines to be put into operation this year [63][69]. - Edible oil factories: The average start - up rate is around 5 - 70% [63]. - Sheet materials: The demand for sheet materials is neutrally supported due to the development of ready - to - drink beverages in the sinking market [74]. International Trade - Overseas production capacity has increased little in recent years, and overseas downstream demand increments will increasingly rely on imports. China's bottle chip exports have multiple main trade flows [80]. - In September 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 59.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of the US removing bottle chips from the tariff exemption list and the increase in the proportion of African imports [87]. Short Fiber (PF) Short Fiber Valuation - The basis oscillates, and the inter - month remains in contango [104]. Start - up - The start - up rate of short - fiber factories is at a high level. The short - fiber load has increased to around 97%, and the start - up rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning has reached 99.5% [110][113]. Polyester Inventory - Downstream positive feedback has led to a trend of de - stocking, but there was mainly a slight inventory increase this week [117]. Polyester Export - In September, polyester exports increased year - on - year but showed differentiation month - on - month [122]. Polyester Profit - Raw materials are weak, and polyester profits have recovered month - on - month [124]. Short Fiber Downstream - The start - up rate of polyester yarn has remained stable month - on - month, and the profit of polyester yarn is generally better than last year [133][136]. Weaving Start - up - The start - up rate has decreased slightly [144]. Weaving Inventory - Raw material inventory has decreased slightly [152].