棉花：高产预期再起令期价小幅下行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to continue to decline to find support from commercial buyers due to sufficient global cotton supply and increased concerns about US cotton supply pressure after the USDA's upward adjustment of US cotton production and ending stocks estimates for the 2025/26 season [1][4][18] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Although there is no new upward driver for cotton futures and spot prices at present, the high basis continues to support Zhengzhou cotton futures. Attention should be paid to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [1][18] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 63.76 | 65.96 | 63.72 | 64.14 | 0.59 | 0.93 | 214712 | 43347 | 155968 | 25922 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 13570 | 13620 | 13435 | 13450 | - 130 | - 0.96 | 897294 | - 69357 | 556440 | - 19839 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 19850 | 19930 | 19685 | 19695 | - 155 | - 0.78 | 66005 | 8241 | 23504 | - 1538 | [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton hit a six - month low this week. The global cotton supply is sufficient, and the import demand of major textile countries remains weak. After the USDA released a new monthly supply - demand report, ICE cotton fell below the October low due to the upward adjustment of US cotton production and ending stocks estimates for the 2025/26 season [4] - In the USDA's monthly supply - demand report, the US cotton production was increased by 900,000 bales to 14.12 million bales, exports were increased by 200,000 bales, and ending stocks were increased by 700,000 bales to 4.3 million bales, with the stock - to - use ratio rising to 30.9%. Globally, the 2025/26 cotton production was increased by 2.4 million bales to 120.08 million bales, mainly in China, the US, and Brazil. Global cotton consumption was basically unchanged, and ending stocks were increased by 2.79 million bales to 75.93 million bales [5] - As of the week ending September 25, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 35,200 tons, a 81% week - on - week increase and a 4% decrease from the four - week average. 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 10,000 tons, all from China. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 982,000 tons, accounting for 37% of the annual forecasted total exports, and the cumulative export shipments were 247,900 tons, accounting for 25% of the annual total contracts [6] - In India, the 2025/26 cotton production is expected to decline year - on - year, and it may become a net importer. Production is forecast at 30.5 million bales, consumption at 30 million bales, exports at 1.7 million bales, and imports at 4.5 million bales [6] - In Brazil, the 2025/26 cotton production estimate was slightly lowered due to a slight reduction in the planted area estimate. In October, raw cotton exports reached 294,000 tons, a 64% increase from September and a slight increase from the same period in 2024. China and India were the main buyers [7] - In Pakistan, cotton import demand is very limited. Local observers predict cotton production of about 6.5 - 7 million bales. Import demand is mild, and the market activity has not recovered due to sufficient local cotton supply and weak downstream demand [8] - In Bangladesh, cotton import demand is restricted by difficulties in opening letters of credit, limited financing channels, competition from low - priced imported yarn from India, and poor yarn sales profitability [8] - In Australia, cotton sowing has ended, and the crop is growing well. As of November 12, the water storage in the Murray - Darling Basin was 66% of the total capacity. In September, raw cotton exports were 175,000 tons, a 4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year decrease. China was the main destination [9] - As of the week ending November 14, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 61%, and 65% respectively [9] 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Domestic cotton spot prices have slightly declined, and trading is not very active. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream basis of cotton spot has remained stable, and the number of low - basis spot has decreased with transactions [10] - As of November 14, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 4401 lots, and the reported warehouse receipts were 643 lots, totaling 5044 lots, equivalent to 211,848 tons [11] - The downstream situation is stable but not improving further. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is dull, new orders are weakening, and spinning mills are digesting previous orders. The prices of pure - cotton yarn are mixed, and the spinning mill operating rate has slightly decreased while inventory has slightly increased. The trading in the cotton fabric market is divided, with limited new orders and weakening sales [12][13] 3.3 Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, etc., to help analyze the cotton market [15][16][17] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to continue to decline to find support. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [18]