工业硅：仓单去化，盘面仍具备上行驱动，多晶硅：下周成都行业大会，关注情绪提振

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon: The destocking of warehouse receipts provides upward momentum for the futures price. It is recommended to buy on dips, with an expected price range of 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton next week [6][7]. - Polysilicon: The upcoming Chengdu conference may boost market sentiment. The market is optimistic next week, with an expected price range of 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Cross - period: No recommendations are provided [8]. - Hedging: It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon plants conduct short - hedging, and downstream silicon wafer enterprises conduct long - hedging [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price fluctuated within a range this week, closing at 9,020 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price remained unchanged, with Xinjiang 99 - silicon quoted at 8,850 yuan/ton and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon at 9,100 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The futures price first declined and then rose, closing at 54,045 yuan/ton on Friday. The upstream spot price remained firm, and there may be downstream restocking after the Sichuan conference next week [2]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial silicon - Supply: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. The production in the southwest and Xinjiang decreased, while that in Inner Mongolia and Henan increased slightly. The overall weekly production decreased month - on - month. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.4 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.06 million tons, resulting in an overall industry inventory decrease of 0.5 million tons [3]. - Demand: The downstream demand was weak. The polysilicon production decreased in November, the organic silicon had rigid demand, and the aluminum alloy maintained a rigid procurement rhythm. The export market was stable, but the price was difficult to increase [4]. Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly production decreased. The inventory of upstream manufacturers increased, indicating a reduction in downstream production. The average full - cost of polysilicon was 50,890 yuan/ton, providing strong support for the futures price [4][5]. - Demand: The silicon wafer production decreased week - on - week. The short - term silicon wafer inventory was relatively low, and the November production decreased month - on - month due to the decline in terminal demand. Some upstream and downstream contracts had been signed, but the overall transaction price did not rise [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook Industrial silicon - The supply is expected to decrease from November, and the demand will also decline marginally. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The key factor is whether the organic silicon enterprises will jointly cut production as scheduled. The continuous destocking of warehouse receipts provides support for the futures price. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. Polysilicon - The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with a slight inventory build - up from November to December. The Chengdu conference next week may bring positive news and boost market sentiment, driving the futures price closer to the previous high [7]. 3.4 Data Presentation - The report presents various data charts, including the reference prices of industrial silicon in major consumption areas, the inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory, factory inventory), production, profit, export and import volume, and the price, production, and inventory of polysilicon and its downstream products (organic silicon, aluminum alloy) [10][12][22]