国债期货周报-20251116

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: November 16, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Views - Treasury bond futures contracts showed weekly fluctuations, with short - end stability and long - end volatility. The small - scale interest - rate cut expectation and the central bank's cautious stance couldn't further boost the year - end bond market [5]. - The weekly adjustment of US stocks affected global risk appetite, and the report maintained the view that the medium - term general direction was oscillating with a downward bias [6]. Group 3: Section Summaries 1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The treasury bond futures market had a differentiation feature where the short - end was relatively stable and the long - end had intensified fluctuations. There were disagreements in the market about the scale of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations and the timing of interest - rate cuts, and the uncertainty of policy implementation rhythm increased curve fluctuations [8]. 2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - There is a figure about liquidity monitoring and curve tracking, but no specific text description in the provided content [10]. 3. Seat Analysis - Daily changes in net long positions by institutional type: private funds increased by 0.98%, foreign capital increased by 0.82%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 0.45%. Weekly changes: private funds decreased by 0.37%, foreign capital decreased by 1.09%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 2.79% [12].