A股策略周报20251116：投资与消费，电力与算力-20251116

Group 1: Overseas Fundamental Contradictions: Investment vs. Consumption, Power vs. Computing Power - Current concerns in overseas markets focus on two main aspects: doubts about the value of AI investments and the disparity between AI-related investments and actual returns [3][4][22] - The recent divergence between U.S. consumer stocks and the S&P 500 reflects market fears of an economic recession, indicating a K-shaped recovery where low-end consumption is weakening [4][24] - The AI industry is driving investment resilience in the U.S., with AI-related investments contributing approximately 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth, surpassing the contribution from private consumption [4][24][29] Group 2: Domestic Demand: A Stabilizing Factor in the Portfolio - Domestic economic data shows weak total consumption, but structural improvements are emerging, particularly in "non-subsidized" sectors, which are showing marginal improvements [5][42] - Two potential scenarios for future domestic demand: one where exporters convert foreign exchange earnings into RMB assets, supporting domestic consumption; the other where financial capital returns in response to global economic risks, enhancing domestic demand resilience [5][47][48] - Key sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery include food and beverage, textiles, and jewelry, which are showing signs of improvement [5][45][46] Group 3: Style Rebalancing in the Context of U.S.-China Mirror Period - The U.S. economy is transitioning to a "strong investment, weak consumption" model, similar to China's experience from 2022 to 2024, highlighting the importance of power-related assets as a key investment theme [6][56] - Recommendations include focusing on undervalued cyclical assets in the consumer sector, particularly textiles and apparel, which are experiencing improved demand dynamics [6][58] - The ongoing recovery in domestic consumption and the potential return of capital flows are expected to provide continued investment value in domestic assets [6][59]