国泰君安期货研究周报-20251116

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price has broken through the downward trend and is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. Stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality, but the downside is limited. Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being depleted, and the market has upward momentum. For polysilicon, the upcoming industry conference in Chengdu next week may boost market sentiment. The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure due to short - term weakening of power and energy storage demand and increased ore shipments. Palm oil has fully priced in short - term negatives, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas. Soybean oil lacks driving forces from the US soybean side and will fluctuate. [4][5][29][60][88] - For nickel, the current situation is mainly characterized by the contradiction of smelting inventory accumulation. Both the current and expected supply - demand situations limit the upside potential of Shanghai nickel. Although there are some nickel ore governance news in Indonesia, the inventory accumulation contradiction is more prominent. For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals lack upward driving forces, but the cost perspective makes short - selling at low levels less cost - effective. [4][5] - Industrial silicon's supply is expected to decrease from November, and the demand is also marginally declining. The key lies in whether the organic silicon enterprises will jointly cut production. Polysilicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the upcoming conference in Chengdu may boost market sentiment. [30][31][33][34] - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure due to increased supply from Australian mines and weakening demand in the energy storage and power sectors. [61][62] - Palm oil has entered a price - gaming period, with short - term marginal themes lacking. The large inventory at the end of the year has been well - priced, and the international oil price is in the bottom - building stage. Soybean oil has a strong price bottom support, but it is necessary to be vigilant against crude oil price fluctuations. [89][90][91] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price Trends: The nickel price has broken through the downward trend, and stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 119,440 yuan, and the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,565 yuan. [4][5][14] - Inventory Situation: On November 14, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 3,563 tons to 54,243 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,014 tons to 252,090 tons. In the nickel - stainless steel sector, the SMM nickel - iron inventory in October was 29,564 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and a 27% year - on - year increase. The SMM stainless steel factory inventory in October was 1.574 million tons, with a 9% year - on - month and 3% month - on - month increase. [6][8] - Market News: There are various news in the Indonesian nickel market, including forestry workgroups taking over mines, sanctions on mining companies, and plans to adjust nickel production and quotas in 2026. [9][10][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Trends: This week, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a range, and the spot price remained unchanged. The polysilicon futures price first fell and then rose, and the spot price was stable. The industrial silicon futures closed at 9,020 yuan/ton on Friday, and the polysilicon futures closed at 54,045 yuan/ton. [29] - Supply and Demand Fundamentals: Industrial silicon's industry inventory decreased this week, with supply decreasing due to production cuts in the southwest region. The demand is in a weak state. Polysilicon's upstream inventory increased, with short - term production decreasing and demand also weakening. [30][31][32] - Future Outlook: Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being depleted, and the market has upward momentum. It is recommended to go long at low prices, with the expected price range of 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton next week. Polysilicon's upcoming conference in Chengdu may boost market sentiment, and the expected price range is 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. [33][34] Lithium Carbonate - Price Trends: The lithium carbonate futures contract rose and then fluctuated at a high level. The 2601 contract closed at 87,360 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5,060 yuan/ton. The spot price was 85,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4,750 yuan/ton. [60] - Supply and Demand Fundamentals: The lithium ore price exceeded $1,000/ton, and the domestic port lithium concentrate inventory increased. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was basically flat, and the inventory continued to decrease. The demand for energy storage and power decreased. [61] - Future Outlook: The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure, and the price range of the futures main contract is expected to be 73,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton. [62] Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Price Trends: Last week, the palm oil 01 contract fell 0.18%, and the soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.88%. This week, the palm oil main contract closed at 8,644 yuan/ton, with a - 0.41% change, and the soybean oil main contract closed at 8,256 yuan/ton, with a 1.05% increase. [88][93] - Supply and Demand Fundamentals: Malaysia's palm oil production in the fourth quarter may be higher than last year, and the inventory at the end of the year may remain at a relatively high level. Indonesia's palm oil export tariff is in a price - gaming stage. For soybean oil, the production situation in Brazil is good, and the US soybean oil has resolved some of the pressure through price adjustments. [89][90] - Future Outlook: Palm oil has entered a price - gaming period, with short - term marginal themes lacking. The large inventory at the end of the year has been well - priced, and the international oil price is in the bottom - building stage. Soybean oil has a strong price bottom support, but it is necessary to be vigilant against crude oil price fluctuations. [89][90][91]