黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery-grade 3.9-meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat at 755 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while in Jiangsu it decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 755 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9-meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged at 855 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9-meter 30+ radiata pine decreased by 5 yuan/cubic meter to 780 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were still in short supply [4]. - As of November 9, there were 11 vessels departing from New Zealand in November, with 10 bound for mainland China and 1 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with partial unloading. It is expected that about 11 vessels will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.37 million cubic meters in November [5][8]. - As of the week of November 7, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 1,300 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 11,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 1,500 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.2658 million cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 5,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's was about 346,400 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 42,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou's was about 254,600 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 55,600 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's was about 214,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 15,300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0808 million cubic meters, an increase of 7,100 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. - As of the week of November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was recorded at 2,125 points, an increase of 21 points (+1.0%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was recorded at 819 points, an increase of 1.1% from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was recorded at 1,451.38 points, an increase of 3.6% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index has recently remained around 99 - 100. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was recorded at 7.098, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.0% to 1.759 [6][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of November 9, 11 vessels departed from New Zealand in November, with 10 going to mainland China and 1 to Taiwan, China and South Korea with partial unloading. It is expected that about 11 vessels will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.37 million cubic meters in November [5][8] - A table shows the detailed information of New Zealand log vessel schedules, including departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [9] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 1,300 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 11,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 1,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports (Lanshan, Taicang, Xinminzhou, and Jiangdu) was 2.0808 million cubic meters, an increase of 7,100 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] - A table provides detailed inventory and shipment data of domestic main ports, including inventory and shipment volume at different time points and changes compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [13] 3.3 Market Trends - As of November 14, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 788.5 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 0.4% from the previous week. The main contract on the futures market rebounded this week, while the fundamental supply - demand situation remained weak. The monthly spreads (in absolute value) tended to narrow. The 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 7 yuan/cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 21.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter [18] 3.4 Other - As of the week of November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,125 points (+1.0% week-on-week), the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 819 points (+1.1% week-on-week), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,451.38 points (+3.6% week-on-week). The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.098 (-0.34% week-on-week), and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.0% to 1.759 [6][50] - A table presents the changes in freight rates and exchange rates, including the Baltic freight index, container shipping index, and exchange rates between the US dollar and RMB, and the US dollar and New Zealand dollar, compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [49]