Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-16 12:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry [3] Core Views - Global oil inventories are expected to continue increasing until 2026, with the EIA forecasting a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day for this year [5][11] - The EIA has raised its price forecasts for crude oil and natural gas for 2025 and 2026, expecting an average crude oil price of $69 per barrel in 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026 [6][8] - Demand growth for global oil is projected at 790,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 770,000 barrels per day in 2026, with significant contributions from the US, China, and Nigeria [8][45] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - The EIA and IEA have both adjusted their global oil supply forecasts upwards by 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day due to OPEC's announced production increases [10][11] - The EIA expects global oil production to rise by 2.81 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.39 million barrels per day in 2026 [10][11] - The IEA anticipates a demand increase of 310,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 250,000 barrels per day in 2026, with a total average supply reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [46][47] Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.39 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.19%, while WTI futures rose to $60.09 per barrel, up 0.57% [20] - The number of active oil rigs in the US increased to 549, with a slight week-on-week rise [35] Refining Sector - The report indicates an improvement in refining profitability due to rising product price spreads, despite current levels being relatively low [5][13] - The Singapore refining margin increased to $24.26 per barrel, while the US gasoline-WTI spread decreased to $20.84 per barrel [5] Polyester Sector - The profitability of PTA and polyester filament yarn has improved, with PTA prices rising to 4,585.4 CNY per ton [5][13] - The report suggests a recovery in the polyester sector, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics shift [13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [5][13] - It also highlights the resilience of oil companies like PetroChina and CNOOC in the face of potential price declines, recommending those with high dividend yields [13]