有色及贵金属周报合集-20251116

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The geopolitical issues in the Taiwan Strait have led to a slight increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, and attention should be paid to the impact of this news on the β - drive of gold. After the end of the longest - ever government shutdown in the US, the release of backlogged economic data is awaited, and the key lies in whether the employment reports for October and November can be released in time. Gold is rated as neutral, with a price range of 890 - 980 yuan/gram [6]. - Silver: Although it is difficult for silver to break through the previous high at present, it is only a matter of time before it breaks through new highs. Attention should be paid to the entry opportunity after this correction. Silver is rated as neutral, with a price range of 11400 - 12400 yuan/kilogram [6]. - Copper: The real - world driving force for copper prices is not strong, but the long - term price increase logic is still obvious. It is recommended to mainly go long on dips, and look for opportunities for internal - external reverse arbitrage [86]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Gold and Silver Market Performance - This week, London gold rose 1.93%, and London silver rose 6.81%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.1 in the previous week to 78.4. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.86%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate dropped to 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 99.28 [6]. Price Analysis - Silver: Due to the rebound of the lease rate on Monday and extremely low domestic silver inventories, the market restarted long - position trading. However, it is difficult for silver to break through the previous high at present, and it is only a matter of time before it breaks through new highs [6]. - Gold: Geopolitical issues in the Taiwan Strait have increased market risk - aversion sentiment. Attention should be paid to the impact of this news on gold prices, as well as the release of US economic data [6]. Transaction - related Data - Overseas and domestic price differences: The London spot - COMEX gold主力 price difference fell to - 2.241 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 price difference was 2.1 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 price difference rose to 0.117 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 price difference was 0.58 dollars/ounce. The domestic gold and silver price differences were also at different levels, with the gold price difference at - 5.22 yuan/gram and the silver price difference at - 25 yuan/gram [12][15][19]. - Month - to - month price differences: The gold month - to - month price difference was 7.92 yuan/gram, at the upper edge of the historical range; the silver month - to - month price difference was 67 yuan/gram, at the lower edge of the historical range [26][30]. - Inventory and position: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.1%; COMEX silver inventory decreased by 138 tons to 14795 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8%. The gold futures inventory increased by 0.81 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 46 tons to 576 tons [39][41][43]. - ETF position: The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 3.65 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 129 tons [51][53]. Copper Market Performance - The copper price rebounded and then fluctuated, with the price range of 85000 - 89000 yuan/ton. The COMEX copper price was about 300 dollars/ton higher than the LME price [82]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The logic of raw material supply shortage continues to weaken. The supply of recycled copper has increased marginally, and the domestic refined copper output has remained at a high level. It is expected that the annual increase will exceed 1.2 million tons [86]. - Demand: The current demand has weakened, but the long - term logic is still strong. The high copper price has suppressed downstream demand, but in the long run, consumption is expected to recover [86]. Transaction - related Data - Volatility: The volatility of SHFE, INE, LME, and COMEX copper prices has declined. The LME copper price volatility is around 8%, and the SHFE copper volatility is around 13% [90]. - Term price differences: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the LME copper spot discount has turned into a premium [92]. - Position: The positions of LME and COMEX copper have increased, while the SHFE copper position has decreased by 0.13 million lots to 55.31 million lots [95]. - Spot premium: The domestic copper spot premium has strengthened, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has declined [103]. - Inventory: The global total inventory has increased, with a significant increase in COMEX inventory [106].