甲醇周度报告-20251116

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental driver of methanol is downward. In the short - term, methanol remains in a state of high domestic supply, while the MTO industry faces increased fundamental pressure, compressing profit margins and suppressing the upward space of methanol. Under inventory pressure, production profits are squeezed. With the weakening of macro - drivers and the weak industrial chain fundamentals, methanol has been operating weakly recently [4]. - As the processing profit of coal - to - methanol is gradually compressed, the pricing logic weight of the cost side of methanol has slightly increased. The cost center of coal - to - methanol is expected to gradually stabilize. In the future, a decline in inventory caused by production enterprises reducing their operating rates may support prices [4]. - The unilateral center of methanol oscillates downward, with the upper pressure of contract 01 at 2160 - 2170 yuan/ton and the lower support at 2000 - 2020 yuan/ton. For the 1 - 5 month spread, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage at high levels. The spread between MA and PP is in an oscillating pattern [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - The report presents multiple price - related charts, including the basis, monthly spreads (1 - 5, 5 - 9), and the number of warehouse receipts of methanol. It also shows domestic and international spot prices of methanol, as well as port - inland price spreads [7][11][15][18] 3.2 Supply - New Capacity: From 2024 - 2025, there have been multiple new methanol production capacity projects in China, with a total expansion of 4000000 tons in 2024 and 8300000 tons in 2025. Internationally, the total expansion was 3550000 tons in 2024 and is expected to be 3300000 tons in 2025 [23]. - Maintenance: There are multiple domestic methanol plant maintenance cases, with a total affected capacity of 4700000 tons/year, and a total actual loss of 1893120 tons [26]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: From October 31 - November 6, 2025, China's methanol production was 1992055 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 87.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. It is expected that next week's production will be around 2008400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be around 88.51% [4]. - Import - related: The report shows charts of China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit [37][38][39][40]. - Cost and Profit: The report presents the production costs and profits of different methanol production processes in various regions, including coal - to - methanol, coke oven gas - to - methanol, and natural gas - to - methanol [42][43][44][46][47][48][49] 3.3 Demand - Downstream Capacity Utilization: The report shows the capacity utilization rates of various methanol downstream industries, including methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc. [52][53][54][55] - Downstream Profit: It shows the production profits of methanol downstream industries such as MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, and glacial acetic acid in different regions [59][60][63][64][65] - Procurement Volume: It includes the procurement volumes of MTO production enterprises in different regions and the raw material procurement volumes of traditional methanol downstream industries in different regions [67][68][69][70][72][73][74][75] - Raw Material Inventory: It shows the raw material inventories of traditional methanol downstream industries in different regions [77][78][79][80] 3.4 Inventory - Factory Inventory: The report shows the factory inventories of methanol in China and different regions (East China, Northwest China, Inner Mongolia) [82][83][84][85] - Port Inventory: It shows the port inventories of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) [88][89][90]